arXiv:2608. 13461v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Post-click conversion rate (CVR) is a key metric in various scenarios including e-commerce and advertising, reflecting the efficiency and user experience in the second stage of the conversion process.
arXiv:2602. 12972v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In online advertising, marketing interventions such as coupons introduce significant confounding bias into Click-Through Rate (CTR) prediction.
The paper introduces DCRMTA, an end‑to‑end framework for deep causal representation learning in multi‑touch attribution (MTA). It addresses a flaw in existing deconfounding pipelines that discard user‑related causal signals by explicitly preserving the causal impact of user features. Using structural causal modeling and adaptive counterfactual attention, DCRMTA produces invariant user representations and achieves up to a 5.2% relative improvement in PR‑AUC on real industrial datasets, while offering robust Shapley‑based credit allocations across marketing channels.
arXiv:2609.36881v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Causal foundation models (CFMs) pre-trained on data generated from various structural causal models (SCMs) have been proposed for estimating causal eff...
The paper introduces DCEO, a data‑driven framework that learns item‑level proxy scores directly aligned with long‑term user objectives in e‑commerce search. It aggregates these scores into a user‑level metric, measures alignment via relative causal effect, and uses an actor‑critic model to generate context‑dependent fusion weights for multiple objectives. Offline experiments and a 41‑day online A/B test show DCEO improves GMV by 0.36% over traditional proxies.
The paper introduces a model‑agnostic inference framework for partially identified causal effects that leverages covariate information without requiring discrete covariates or accurate conditional distribution estimates. Using duality theory for optimal transport, the method delivers uniformly valid inference in randomized experiments, is doubly robust in observational settings, achieves asymptotic unbiasedness when nuisance parameters converge semiparametrically, and allows multiplier‑bootstrap selection of covariates and models while remaining computationally efficient. Empirical applications show the approach consistently narrows identified sets and confidence intervals without imposing extra structural assumptions.
arXiv:2604. 14575v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Marketing research often relies on parameters estimated from costly human-generated data, such as conjoint survey responses, purchase decisions, and field experiment outcomes.
CausalProfiler is a synthetic benchmark generator designed to evaluate causal machine learning (Causal ML) methods more rigorously and transparently. It randomly samples causal models, data, queries, and ground truths based on explicit design choices across observation, intervention, and counterfactual reasoning levels, providing coverage guarantees and transparent assumptions. The authors demonstrate its utility by testing several state‑of‑the‑art methods under diverse conditions, both within and outside the identification regime, highlighting the insights CausalProfiler can reveal.
arXiv:2608. 10562v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Not all clicks are equal.
arXiv:2608. 10182v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large-scale targeting and recommendation systems are typically built around predictive scores fed into heuristic or local allocation.
arXiv:2609.17238v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: High-dimensional data create challenges for causal effect estimation because identifying the covariates needed for correct model specification become...
arXiv:2606. 03332v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Probabilistic models are typically trained using task-agnostic objectives like log-loss, which can lead to significant errors in downstream estimation.
arXiv:2607. 14940v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study causal inference under outcome interference for sequential, observational settings.