arXiv AI

Margin-Adaptive Confidence Ranking for Reliable LLM Judgement

arXiv:2605. 15416v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Jung et al.

arXiv Computation and Language
Aug 27

Localize-Then-Decide Guarantees for LLM Judgments

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to evaluate output quality, but guaranteeing agreement with human judgments is difficult. The paper introduces a Localize-Then-Decide framework that first uses conformal prediction to narrow down a shortlist likely to contain the human-preferred response, then applies a calibrated confidence rule to select a single response or abstain. Experiments show this two-stage approach consistently yields higher guarantee success rates and greater coverage than single-stage baselines across various candidate sizes and datasets.

By Xinyu Li, Yi Zhou, Guanqun Cao, Zeyu Fu, Tianjin Huang, Gaojie Jin
arXiv Computation and Language
Aug 28

Evaluating Language Models in Realistic Conversational Contexts

The paper introduces UPHELD, a large benchmark of human-to-human dialogues written by professional script writers, featuring realistic turn densities and over 36,000 per-turn human annotations. It evaluates existing automatic metrics and LLM-as-a-judge methods, finding them unreliable against expert human judgment. Using UPHELD, the authors develop a Mixture-of-Judges framework that improves correlation with human assessments by about 30%.

By Ilija Subasic, Andrew Rabinovich, Zhao Chen
arXiv Computation and Language
Sep 7

A Calibrated Reflection Approach for Enhancing Confidence Estimation in LLMs

The paper introduces a Calibrated Reflection approach to improve confidence estimation in Large Language Models (LLMs). It combines structured reasoning with a distance‑aware calibration technique, featuring a Maximum Confidence Selection method, a reflection‑based prompting mechanism, and an ordinal‑aware calibration strategy. Experiments on datasets such as HelpSteer2, Llama T‑REx, and a proprietary conversational set show the method works for both conversational and fact‑based classification tasks.

By Umesh Bodhwani, Yuan Ling, Shujing Dong, Yarong Feng, Hongfei Li, Ayush Goyal
Hugging Face Trending Papers
Aug 3

Aggregate-then-Calibrate for Human-centered Assessment with Theoretical Guarantees

Human-centered assessment tasks, which are essential for systematic decision-making, rely heavily on human judgment and typically lack verifiable ground truth. Existing approaches face a dilemma: methods using only human judgments suffer from heterogeneous expertise and inconsistent rating scales, while methods using only model-generated scores must learn from imperfect proxies or incomplete features.

arXiv Computation and Language
Sep 18

An Analysis of Training-Free Self-Reported Confidence in Language Models

The paper investigates whether language models’ self-reported confidence is meaningful without additional training. By evaluating three training‑free signals—direct verbalization, post‑hoc probability estimates, and agreement across multiple generations—on 100 TriviaQA questions, the authors find that direct verbalization alone achieves high AUROC scores (0.956 and 0.937) for correctness prediction, while agreement-based methods perform noticeably worse. Re‑eliciting confidence for the same answers shows modest score shifts and occasional decision flips, and an audit of biography claims reveals only a small confidence gap between supported and contradicted statements.

By Lukas Meyer, Sofia Rossi, Wei Chen, Thomas Laurent, Yiming Li