arXiv:2602. 04596v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Bayes-filtered transformers are transformers meta-learned on sequences from a prior predictive distribution to approximate the corresponding posterior predictive distribution.
arXiv:2608. 05995v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reliable uncertainty estimates are critical in safety-sensitive applications, where understanding the sources of predictive uncertainty is essential.
arXiv:2606. 20538v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Bayesian predictive inference provides a principled framework for uncertainty quantification, data efficiency, and robust generalization.
arXiv:2510. 10981v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: This paper develops a finite-sample statistical theory for in-context learning (ICL), analyzed within a meta-learning framework that accommodates mixtures of diverse task types.
arXiv:2410. 14843v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Vanilla variational inference finds an optimal approximation to the Bayesian posterior distribution, but even the exact Bayesian posterior is often not meaningful under model misspecification.
arXiv:2602. 19126v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We propose a robust Bayesian formulation of random feature (RF) regression that accounts explicitly for prior and likelihood misspecification via Huber-style contamination sets.
arXiv:2602. 01477v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) is a popular framework for uncertainty-aware classification that models predictive uncertainty via Dirichlet distributions parameterized by neural networks.
arXiv:2605. 00600v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Deep neural networks achieve impressive results across diverse applications, yet their overconfidence on unseen inputs necessitates reliable epistemic uncertainty modeling.
arXiv:2607. 18804v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In the \emph{latent posterior model} of transformer behavior, the next-token distribution arises from a posterior over latent predictive models conditioned on the context, mixed to generate continuations.
arXiv:2607. 17060v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A Bayes-filtered transformer (BFT) is a transformer trained on sequences that are generated in two steps: first a latent task is drawn from a prior, then observations are drawn conditional on that task.
arXiv:2507. 11768v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Bayesian accounts of in-context learning face a direct objection: exact posterior predictives for exchangeable data are invariant to task-preserving order, yet transformers change next-token probabilities when the same examples are serialized differently.
arXiv:2603. 12037v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Foundation models based on prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have shown strong empirical performance in causal inference by framing the task as an in-context learning problem.
arXiv:2606. 19353v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In-Context Learning (ICL) allows LLMs to adapt to new tasks from a few demonstrations, but its reliability remains a concern: predictions are highly sensitive to both prompt design and the model's ability to understand the context, obscuring whether failures arise from data properties or model limitations.