arXiv:2607. 12397v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: LLM agents act in external environments where each action changes the state that later decisions condition on, and where a single wrong step can waste interaction budget or trigger irreversible side effects long before the final failure is observed.
Prospective Hindsight (PH) is a self‑calibrating training principle for reinforcement learning that augments any retrospective base method with a signal derived from the gap between an agent’s prospective prediction and its retrospective evaluation. By weighting gradients with a stop‑gradient surprise based on this prediction‑reality gap, PH highlights samples where the agent’s self‑model is most inaccurate and encourages the policy and predictor to co‑evolve, progressively focusing on remaining blind spots. Experiments on single‑turn verifiable tasks and a multi‑turn personal‑agent task show that PH improves both task performance and calibration across model scales, addressing overconfident failures in single‑turn settings and underconfident successes in multi‑turn settings.
LLM agents act in external environments where each action changes the state that later decisions condition on, and where a single wrong step can waste interaction budget or trigger irreversible side effects long before the final failure is observed. Reliable deployment therefore requires \emph{step-level confidence estimation}: a calibrated probability that each proposed action is productive, available \emph{before} the action is executed.
arXiv:2609.27532v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Long-horizon agentic tasks require an agent to modify an environment through a sequence of tool calls, with success determined by the final state. The...
The Agent Error Dataset (AED) presents 50,228 error–diagnosis pairs collected from 9,961 source tasks across 33 environments, 19 harness families, and 23 policy models in text‑based agent systems. A five‑stage Agentic Error‑to‑Training (AET) pipeline generates diagnoses and proposed corrections, verifies them against recorded evidence, and creates separate training views for diagnosis and actor recovery. Experiments show that first‑proposal corrections improve verifier pass rates from 18.4% to 51.1%, and fine‑tuning with full‑diagnosis data raises Qwen3‑8B’s exact‑step agreement from 47.2% to 63.6% on a holdout set.
arXiv:2602. 05459v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Offline goal-conditioned reinforcement learning (GCRL) is typically benchmarked by the best tuned success rate of each method.
arXiv:2602. 11619v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Running the same LLM agent on identical inputs yields 2.
The paper introduces CASTLE, a framework for fully decentralized multi‑agent reinforcement learning that uses two offline‑trained world models to provide in‑context guidance to independent agents. A Local Dynamics World Model captures each agent’s trajectory dynamics, while a Semantic‑Social World Model predicts short‑horizon task and social outcomes for candidate actions based on counterfactual simulator rollouts. During online learning, these frozen models supply prediction logits to an independent PPO policy, enabling agents to compare potential actions prospectively rather than relying solely on scalar rewards. CASTLE outperforms existing baselines on several multi‑particle benchmark tasks, achieving the highest mean final scores across 30 seeds.
The paper introduces StepLearn, a nonparametric framework for prequential test‑time learning in large language model agents. StepLearn separates immediate use of informative transitions from persistent trust, turning each transition into a hypothesis that guides the next step and only reusing it after prospective validation across episodes. Experiments on WebArena‑Lite and ALFWorld show StepLearn improves success rates by 2.2–12.7 percentage points over the strongest baseline, with benefits evident from the first task attempts.
The paper introduces WebMRE, an offline benchmark comprising 541 tasks and 5,293 steps extracted from WebArena trajectories, designed to provide deterministic scoring for web agents without live environments. It enables the first systematic study of how guide sentences and grounded actions reinforce each other, showing that jointly decoding a guide improves element selection accuracy and that the guide acts as a causal instruction channel. The authors fine‑tune models that outperform leading zero‑shot baselines on all offline metrics.
The paper introduces XConf, an experiential confidence estimator that augments a language model’s current inference with a record of its past graded episodes. By recalling similar past tasks and reflecting on past outcomes, XConf generates confidence scores without accessing logits or updating weights, achieving superior discrimination and calibration across diverse benchmarks. The method demonstrates significant gains in selective prediction, improving success rates on agent tasks by up to 8.7 points.
arXiv:2606. 03238v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) makes large-scale post-training possible by replacing an underspecified human objective with learned and scalable proxies.