arXiv AI

Evaluating LLM-Generated Preference Distributions

The paper evaluates how Large Language Models generate preference distributions for air travel, restaurants, and consumer products. It finds that while each model produces self-coherent outcomes that stabilize quickly, there is significant disagreement across different model families and scales, with little consensus even on the most probable preferences. These discrepancies persist across various decoding strategies, temperature settings, and prompt variations, indicating that the model choice itself has a larger impact than prompt wording.

arXiv AI
Aug 19

LLM-Derived Preference Judgments Are Not Self-Consistent

The paper investigates whether large language models (LLMs) produce self‑consistent numerical preference judgments when asked to estimate a person’s willingness to pay for items. By comparing differences in stated willingness to pay with the payment that would make a person indifferent between items, the authors develop statistical tests to measure deviations from a single utility function. Experiments on flight, apartment, and hotel scenarios across six LLMs show persistent inconsistencies, indicating that LLM‑derived preference judgments cannot be reliably summarized by one utility function.

By Matthew T. Ford, Francis Bahk, Jingjing Wang, Adam S. Jovine, Tinghan Ye, David B. Shmoys, Peter I. Frazier
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 22

Multiple latent orderings better predict language model preferences

The paper argues that language models’ intransitive preferences arise from multiple internally consistent latent orderings rather than noise around a single ordering. By demonstrating that a single ordering cannot explain observed inconsistencies and introducing a noise‑augmented mixture Bradley‑Terry model, the authors show that mixtures of orderings better capture preference structure across several models and tasks. A case study on Moral Machine dilemmas further illustrates that models can share latent components even when aggregate preferences differ.

By Aviral Chawla, William H. W. Thompson, Jean-Gabriel Young
arXiv AI
Jun 17

Would a Large Language Model Pay Extra for a View? Inferring Willingness to Pay from Subjective Choices

arXiv:2602. 09802v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: As Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in applications such as travel assistance and purchasing support, they are often required to make subjective choices on behalf of users in settings where no objectively correct answer exists.

By Manon Reusens, Sofie Goethals, Toon Calders, David Martens
arXiv AI
Jun 3

Distribution-Calibrated Inference Time Compute for Thinking LLM-as-a-Judge

arXiv:2512. 03019v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Thinking Large Language Models (LLMs) used as judges for pairwise preferences remain noisy at the single-sample level, and common aggregation rules (majority vote, soft self-consistency, or instruction-based self-aggregation) are inconsistent when ties are allowed.

By Hamid Dadkhahi, Firas Trabelsi, Parker Riley, Juraj Juraska, Mehdi Mirzazadeh
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 4

The Illusion of Stochasticity in LLMs

arXiv:2604. 06543v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In this work, we demonstrate that reliable stochastic sampling is a fundamental yet unfulfilled requirement for Large Language Models (LLMs) operating as agents.

By Xiangming Gu, Soham De, Michalis Titsias, Larisa Markeeva, Petar Veli\v{c}kovi\'c, Razvan Pascanu
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 28

Recipes for Steering and Scaling LLMs via Sampling

The paper introduces a flexible, theoretically grounded framework for steering and scaling autoregressive large language models (LLMs) through sampling. It presents two algorithms—Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and Replica Exchange (RE)—that guide generation toward desired distributions such as powering, product, or tilting of the base model. Experiments show these methods outperform Best‑of‑N and standard MCMC baselines, offering a systematic recipe for probabilistic inference with LLMs via sampling.

By Jiajun He, Zongyu Guo, Jos\'e Miguel Hern\'andez-Lobato, Yuanqi Du