arXiv AI

Distribution-Calibrated Inference Time Compute for Thinking LLM-as-a-Judge

arXiv:2512. 03019v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Thinking Large Language Models (LLMs) used as judges for pairwise preferences remain noisy at the single-sample level, and common aggregation rules (majority vote, soft self-consistency, or instruction-based self-aggregation) are inconsistent when ties are allowed.

arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 22

Multiple latent orderings better predict language model preferences

The paper argues that language models’ intransitive preferences arise from multiple internally consistent latent orderings rather than noise around a single ordering. By demonstrating that a single ordering cannot explain observed inconsistencies and introducing a noise‑augmented mixture Bradley‑Terry model, the authors show that mixtures of orderings better capture preference structure across several models and tasks. A case study on Moral Machine dilemmas further illustrates that models can share latent components even when aggregate preferences differ.

By Aviral Chawla, William H. W. Thompson, Jean-Gabriel Young
Hugging Face Trending Papers
Aug 3

Aggregate-then-Calibrate for Human-centered Assessment with Theoretical Guarantees

Human-centered assessment tasks, which are essential for systematic decision-making, rely heavily on human judgment and typically lack verifiable ground truth. Existing approaches face a dilemma: methods using only human judgments suffer from heterogeneous expertise and inconsistent rating scales, while methods using only model-generated scores must learn from imperfect proxies or incomplete features.

arXiv Computation and Language
Sep 1

When Calibration Rankings Reverse: Accuracy-Controlled Evaluation for Fair Comparison of LLMs

The paper argues that traditional global calibration metrics, such as Expected Calibration Error and Brier Score, are confounded by differences in model accuracy when comparing large language models. It introduces ACE, an accuracy‑controlled evaluation framework that offers Instance‑Aligned, Distribution‑Aligned, and Candidate‑Aligned views to provide fairer cross‑model comparisons. Experiments across various benchmarks reveal that many reported calibration advantages disappear after accuracy control and that model rankings often reverse, indicating that raw global metrics are unreliable for cross‑model calibration assessment.

By Zhichao Yang, Caiqi Zhang, Ruihan Yang, Chengzu Li, Nigel Collier, Deqing Yang
arXiv Computation and Language
4d ago

Pair Difficulty Matters: Rethinking Pairwise LLM-as-a-Judge Evaluation and Consistency

Large Language Model judges are commonly used to rank texts via pairwise comparison, with reliability traditionally measured by position bias, transitivity, and pairwise agreement. This paper argues that these proxies are misleading because they are dominated by close‑rank‑gap pairs, which contribute little to the overall ranking, while far‑gap pairs carry the true ranking signal. Experiments on simulations and human‑rated corpora show weak correlation between the proxies and actual ranking accuracy, suggesting judges should be evaluated using rank‑gap‑conditional metrics against human rankings.

By Bruno Brocai, Maria Becker
arXiv AI
Aug 19

SCOPE: Selective Conformal Optimized Pairwise LLM Judging

SCOPE is a framework that calibrates an acceptance threshold for large language models used as pairwise judges, ensuring that the error rate among non-abstained judgments does not exceed a user-specified level α. It introduces Bidirectional Preference Entropy (BPE) to provide a bias-neutral uncertainty signal by querying the judge in both response positions and converting the averaged preference probability into an entropy-based score. Across multiple pairwise judging benchmarks, BPE outperforms standard confidence proxies in calibration and discrimination, while SCOPE consistently meets the target risk bound (empirical FDR ≈0.097–0.099 at α=0.10) and retains substantial coverage, accepting up to 2.4× more judgments under the same risk constraint.

By Sher Badshah, Ali Emami, Hassan Sajjad
arXiv AI
Aug 19

The Authenticity Gap in Human Evaluation

The paper critiques the conventional method of averaging human ratings to evaluate natural language generation (NLG) systems, arguing that it relies on assumptions about annotators that are often violated, especially when using Likert scales. These violations can even reverse true preferences, leading to inaccurate system rankings. The authors propose a more theoretically sound protocol and introduce a new system-level probabilistic assessment (SPA) for open-ended tasks like story generation, which successfully recovers expected model orderings where the standard protocol fails.

By Kawin Ethayarajh, Dan Jurafsky