arXiv AI

A Threshold Exceedance Framework for CBRN Uplift Evaluation in Frontier Language Models

arXiv:2607. 12200v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: As frontier language models advance, policymakers and model developers need methods for assessing whether model access materially increases a non-expert actor's ability to plan high-consequence Chemical, Biological, Radiological, or Nuclear (CBRN) misuse relative to public tools alone.

arXiv AI
Jul 16

Protective Capacity Hallucination: When Large Language Models Claim Nonexistent Capabilities

arXiv:2607. 13596v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: When cast as the protector of a vulnerable user yet given no explicit capability boundary, a large language model (LLM) may respond not by acknowledging its limits but by claiming to have taken -- or to be taking -- a real-world protective action it cannot perform, such as contacting emergency services or administering care.

By Eunna Lee, Jungpyo Nam, Sunjun Hwang
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 10

From Observation to Intervention: A Causal Audit of Expert Importance in Mixture-of-Experts Models

arXiv:2606. 10703v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Interpretability methods routinely use population-level summary statistics over observed model behaviour to license claims about the effects of targeted interventions on specific computations; in Pearl's terms, they treat rung-1 associational evidence as if it supported rung-2 interventional conclusions, a move whose validity is rarely tested.

By Leonard Engmann, Christian Medeiros Adriano, Holger Giese
arXiv AI
Jul 1

RCTs for Frontier AI Governance: Methodological Challenges and Solutions for Human Uplift Studies

arXiv:2603. 11001v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Human uplift studies, or studies that measure the effects of AI access on human performance via randomized controlled trials (RCT) or similar methodologies, increasingly inform frontier AI governance and deployment decisions.

By Patricia Paskov, Kevin Wei, Shen Zhou Hong, Dan Bateyko, Xavier Roberts-Gaal, Carson Ezell, Gailius Praninskas, Valerie Chen, Umang Bhatt, Ella Guest