arXiv:2509. 15394v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Accurate electricity demand forecasting is challenging due to the strong multi-periodicity of real-world demand series, which makes effective modeling of recurrent temporal patterns crucial.
arXiv:2603. 15802v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In many time series forecasting settings, the target time series is accompanied by exogenous covariates, such as promotions and prices in retail demand; temperature in energy load; calendar and holiday indicators for traffic or sales; and grid load or fuel costs in electricity pricing.
LoaDiff is a diffusion-based generative model that produces year-long, sub-hourly smart‑meter electricity consumption time series. It can be conditioned on static household attributes like appliance ownership and dynamic factors such as calendar dates and outdoor temperature. Evaluations on three residential datasets show that LoaDiff generates realistic, diverse load profiles, limits memorization, retains useful information for downstream tasks, and responds coherently to conditioning changes.
arXiv:2609.06656v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Modern power systems are growing increasingly complex as they integrate diverse generation sources to meet rising demand, making accurate load foreca...
arXiv:2609.17029v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Traditional energy forecasting solutions rely on task-specific supervision and energy asset representations, limiting transferability and the ability...
The paper presents a Causal Graph‑Informed Temporal Convolutional Network (CG‑TCN) that fuses a learned causal graph with a temporal convolutional network to forecast retail electricity prices. By decomposing price series into multi‑resolution trends and discovering a causal graph over these components and key covariates, the model conditions its convolutions and attention on causal pathways. On ten years of Ohio residential contracts, CG‑TCN outperforms benchmarks, achieving MAEps of 3.08%, 3.82%, and 5.43% for one‑, ten‑, and fifteen‑step‑ahead forecasts, respectively.
arXiv:2608. 20025v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Probabilistic forecasting models are widely used for time series forecasting in domains such as energy systems, finance, medicine, and transportation.
The paper introduces TiMi, a framework that enhances time series transformers with a Multimodal Mixture-of-Experts (MMoE) module to incorporate multimodal data, especially textual information, into forecasting. TiMi leverages large language models to generate future inferences that guide predictions, eliminating the need for explicit representation alignment. Experiments show TiMi achieves state‑of‑the‑art performance on sixteen real‑world multimodal forecasting benchmarks, outperforming advanced baselines while maintaining adaptability and interpretability.
The paper proposes a neural‑network algorithm for contextual electricity pricing, framing the problem as a Stackelberg game and using a mean‑field solution to learn constrained mappings from contextual features (e.g., weather, sunrise/sunset, day‑of‑week) to feasible price signals. The method is validated through simulations of the energy grid in several U.S. cities, demonstrating that incorporating rich contextual information can significantly enhance the value of demand‑response programs.
arXiv:2606. 15172v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Synthesizing realistic time series with generative models has wide-ranging applications in real-world scenarios.
Dual-source trolleybuses alternate between overhead catenary supply and on-board battery operation, creating energy-use patterns driven by route attributes, high-frequency trajectories, and hourly weather. Existing models struggle to represent these heterogeneous inputs and rarely explain the causal drivers of consumption.
arXiv:2606. 13119v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Spatio-Temporal forecasting is crucial in diverse fields, such as transportation, climate, and energy.
arXiv:2607. 11349v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Dual-source trolleybuses alternate between overhead catenary supply and on-board battery operation, creating energy-use patterns driven by route attributes, high-frequency trajectories, and hourly weather.