arXiv:2609.17238v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: High-dimensional data create challenges for causal effect estimation because identifying the covariates needed for correct model specification become...
arXiv:2503. 20546v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We consider the problem of estimating the expected causal effect $E[Y|do(X)]$ for a target variable $Y$ when treatment $X$ is set by intervention, focusing on continuous random variables.
arXiv:2411.05625v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We propose a new approach to falsify causal discovery algorithms without ground truth, which is based on testing the causal model on a variable pai...
Residual-Based Causal Discovery via Pretrained In-Context Quantile Regression proposes Loscar, an extension of the RESIT framework to location-scale noise models (LSNMs). Loscar estimates conditional mean and scale using quantile regression, allowing pretrained tabular foundation models to serve as plug‑in estimators. Experiments on bivariate and multivariate causal‑discovery benchmarks show that in‑context quantile regression outperforms a feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) variant, especially when causes are multivariate.
The paper investigates why causal foundation models (CFMs) produce poorly calibrated credible intervals when aggregating unit-level estimates over groups. It shows that CFMs combine unit-level variances assuming independence, but posterior uncertainty induces correlations that shrink the combined variance, leading to coverage loss that worsens with group size. The authors demonstrate that neural process models, which jointly predict for groups, correct this bias and markedly improve interval coverage across synthetic and benchmark datasets.
arXiv:2602. 22083v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Causal identification functionals often require integration over conditional densities of continuous variables, such as those arising in nonparametric identification theory of total and mediated causal effects in DAGs with hidden variables.
CausalProfiler is a synthetic benchmark generator designed to evaluate causal machine learning (Causal ML) methods more rigorously and transparently. It randomly samples causal models, data, queries, and ground truths based on explicit design choices across observation, intervention, and counterfactual reasoning levels, providing coverage guarantees and transparent assumptions. The authors demonstrate its utility by testing several state‑of‑the‑art methods under diverse conditions, both within and outside the identification regime, highlighting the insights CausalProfiler can reveal.
arXiv:2609.36881v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Causal foundation models (CFMs) pre-trained on data generated from various structural causal models (SCMs) have been proposed for estimating causal eff...
arXiv:2603. 02159v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Instrumental variable (IV) and proximal causal learning (Proxy) methods are central frameworks for causal inference in the presence of unobserved confounding.
arXiv:2105. 09254v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In many applications, researchers are interested in the direct and indirect causal effects of a treatment or exposure on an outcome of interest.
arXiv:2609.37446v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Supervised causal discovery learns to infer causal structure for a new dataset from training datasets paired with structural labels. These training pai...
arXiv:2608. 13461v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Post-click conversion rate (CVR) is a key metric in various scenarios including e-commerce and advertising, reflecting the efficiency and user experience in the second stage of the conversion process.