Empirical Bayes (EB) estimators can match the first-order asymptotic risk of maximum likelihood (ML) while behaving very differently at second order: recent excess mean squared error (XMSE) analysis shows that kernel-based EB estimation may be worse than ML when the kernel is poorly aligned with the true parameter. This paper turns that diagnostic into a design principle.
arXiv:2606. 26975v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Empirical Bayes (EB) estimators can match the first-order asymptotic risk of maximum likelihood (ML) while behaving very differently at second order: recent excess mean squared error (XMSE) analysis shows that kernel-based EB estimation may be worse than ML when the kernel is poorly aligned with the true parameter.
arXiv:2608. 11162v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: The Naive Bayes (NB) classifier remains a standard choice for categorical data, yet its widely used smoothing rules, such as Laplace, Lidstone, Krichevsky-Trofimov, and the $m$-estimate, all prescribe a fixed smoothing strength that ignores feature cardinality, sample size, and class imbalance, inducing a non-vanishing bias on modern high-cardinality tabular data.
arXiv:2601. 07094v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Bayesian optimization (BO) iteratively fits a Gaussian process (GP) surrogate to accumulated evaluations and selects new queries via an acquisition function.
arXiv:2602. 13362v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: A key challenge in probabilistic regression is ensuring that predictive distributions accurately reflect true empirical uncertainty.
arXiv:2606. 25169v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Sampling from an unnormalized target by reversing an Ornstein--Uhlenbeck diffusion requires the score of each noise-perturbed marginal.
arXiv:2606. 25169v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Sampling from an unnormalized target by reversing an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck diffusion requires the score of each noise-perturbed marginal.
arXiv:2607. 06879v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Best-arm identification is a canonical model for data-driven decision-making, but in many applications each reward observation is costly.
arXiv:2606. 07841v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Black-box variational inference (BBVI) is a methodology for posterior approximation that relies on stochastic optimization.
arXiv:2608. 08826v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Adaptive procedures must work without nuisance information an oracle may use, such as a gradient scale or smoothness index, and robust procedures may have to answer queries whose coordinate and inspection time are chosen only after the data are seen.
arXiv:2608. 07113v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We consider the optimization of the Optimized Certainty Equivalent (OCE) risk, with applications including portfolio optimization in finance, and uncertainty quantification, classification, and regression in machine learning.
arXiv:2603. 20388v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We derive the asymptotic risk function of regularized empirical risk minimization (ERM) estimators tuned by $n$-fold cross-validation (CV).
arXiv:2606. 30372v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Quantitative research across the social and behavioral sciences depends on human subject experiments that are expensive, slow, and subject to sampling bias.