arXiv Machine Learning

The Cost Geometry of Belief: finite-resource inference under noisy observation

arXiv:2606. 21585v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: A finite machine's digital twin of a system observes the territory through finite, noisy sensors; we model its coherent output as a belief, a probability density over states, the Bayes posterior, never a point.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 30

A Transport-Based Geometry of Belief-Cost

arXiv:2606. 21585v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: A finite agent, a machine's digital twin or any bounded reasoner, infers a fixed and noisy world through finite sensors, so its coherent output is a belief: a probability density over states (the Bayes posterior).

By Laurent Caraffa
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 24

Fisher Widths: Local Learning Geometry and Anisotropic Recovery

arXiv:2607. 20578v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study Gaussian-width complexity on statistical manifolds through a pair of functionals: the primal Fisher width $w_G(T) = w(G^{1/2}T)$, induced by the Fisher metric, and the inverse-Fisher width $w_{G^{-1}}(T) = w(G^{-1/2}T)$, induced by the inverse Fisher metric.

By Vu Khac Ky
arXiv AI
Jun 8

A Temporal Spatial Minimax Rate for Smoothly-Varying Distributions in Wasserstein Space

arXiv:2606. 07325v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study the minimax rate of estimating a future value $\mu_{t_n+h}$ of a curve $t\mapsto\mu_t$ in the $2$-Wasserstein space $\mathcal{P}_2(\mathbb{R}^d)$ from finitely many noisy snapshots of its past, under an adiabatic bound $\|\nabla_t^k v\|\le\varepsilon$ on the $k$-th covariant derivative of the velocity field.

By Munsik Kim
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 11

Optimal Learning Under Tsybakov Noise

arXiv:2608. 08416v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) learning [Val84] is a fundamental learning model that has been extensively investigated.

By Steve Hanneke, Hongao Wang, Mingyue Xu