arXiv Machine Learning By Laurent Caraffa

A Transport-Based Geometry of Belief-Cost

Read the original on arXiv Machine Learning →

arXiv:2606. 21585v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: A finite agent, a machine's digital twin or any bounded reasoner, infers a fixed and noisy world through finite sensors, so its coherent output is a belief: a probability density over states (the Bayes posterior).

Machine-generated by The Flow from the publisher's headline and feed description — not written or checked by a human. The full article lives at arXiv Machine Learning.

arXiv AI
Jun 8

A Temporal Spatial Minimax Rate for Smoothly-Varying Distributions in Wasserstein Space

arXiv:2606. 07325v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study the minimax rate of estimating a future value $\mu_{t_n+h}$ of a curve $t\mapsto\mu_t$ in the $2$-Wasserstein space $\mathcal{P}_2(\mathbb{R}^d)$ from finitely many noisy snapshots of its past, under an adiabatic bound $\|\nabla_t^k v\|\le\varepsilon$ on the $k$-th covariant derivative of the velocity field.

By Munsik Kim
arXiv AI
Aug 26

The Shadow Price of Intelligence: Quality Degradation in LLM Inference as a Supply Chain Problem

The paper argues that large language model (LLM) providers, constrained by compute, often degrade service during congestion by routing queries to smaller models, cutting reasoning effort, or truncating context. It shows that this practice misrepresents costs because degraded answers can fail, leading to retries that inflate traffic or churn that erodes lifetime value. By modeling inference allocation with newsvendor, retry, and queueing frameworks, the authors derive a ‘shadow price of intelligence’ that quantifies the marginal value of each query, revealing that throttling under congestion acts as a demand lever rather than a cost lever.

By Elioth Sanabria
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 25

Structured Approximations of Measures

arXiv:2310. 09149v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We study the approximation of probability measures in the Wasserstein-$p$ distance by structured classes of approximators, motivated by applications in imaging, machine learning, and physical measurement under sensor constraints.

By Keaton Hamm, Varun Khurana