arXiv:2606. 21585v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: A finite agent, a machine's digital twin or any bounded reasoner, infers a fixed and noisy world through finite sensors, so its coherent output is a belief: a probability density over states (the Bayes posterior).
arXiv:2606. 21585v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: A finite machine's digital twin of a system observes the territory through finite, noisy sensors; we model its coherent output as a belief, a probability density over states, the Bayes posterior, never a point.
arXiv:2606. 12502v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We propose that value -- the quantity goal-directed agents create, destroy, and exchange -- is a lawful structural quantity in the same category as information.
arXiv:2606. 07325v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study the minimax rate of estimating a future value $\mu_{t_n+h}$ of a curve $t\mapsto\mu_t$ in the $2$-Wasserstein space $\mathcal{P}_2(\mathbb{R}^d)$ from finitely many noisy snapshots of its past, under an adiabatic bound $\|\nabla_t^k v\|\le\varepsilon$ on the $k$-th covariant derivative of the velocity field.
arXiv:2609.23163v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Comparing probability measures in machine learning trades transport geometry against computational cost: Wasserstein distances encode the geometry of...
The paper argues that large language model (LLM) providers, constrained by compute, often degrade service during congestion by routing queries to smaller models, cutting reasoning effort, or truncating context. It shows that this practice misrepresents costs because degraded answers can fail, leading to retries that inflate traffic or churn that erodes lifetime value. By modeling inference allocation with newsvendor, retry, and queueing frameworks, the authors derive a ‘shadow price of intelligence’ that quantifies the marginal value of each query, revealing that throttling under congestion acts as a demand lever rather than a cost lever.
arXiv:2310. 09149v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We study the approximation of probability measures in the Wasserstein-$p$ distance by structured classes of approximators, motivated by applications in imaging, machine learning, and physical measurement under sensor constraints.
arXiv:2606. 03736v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We study resource-constrained dynamic pricing when the seller seeks revenue and valid inference about demand at a price fixed before the selling season.
The paper studies contextual bilateral trade with full feedback, showing that action-independent observations eliminate the usual polynomial adaptation penalty seen in heavy-tailed bandits. It presents fully parameter-free algorithms that achieve oracle minimax regret rates without knowing the moment order or scale, and derives new regret bounds for both parametric and nonparametric settings. The key technical insight is a paired squared‑loss statistic whose noise cancels, enabling model selection and yielding regret rates that interpolate between classical nonparametric and linear extremes.
Runtime compression of serving state trades quality for capacity with no priced guarantee: systems adapt precision on load signals with no soundness statement, and certified approaches budget request-...
arXiv:2607. 06570v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Value-of-information (VOI) analysis is usually conducted under a single probability measure.
The paper shows that Worst‑Case Optimal Recovery (OR) and Bayesian learning solve the same Gaussian‑quadratic‑Hilbert problems, linking the radius of information to a nugget‑optimized Gaussian process posterior variance. It evaluates three Bayesian systems, demonstrating that OR can outperform Bayesian methods in certain calibration and reproducibility metrics, yet split‑conformal and other approaches can beat OR in interval scoring, especially under covariate shift. The authors propose matching the guarantee tool to the data regime and auditing that regime first.
arXiv:2608. 15810v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Runtime compression of serving state trades quality for capacity with no priced guarantee: systems adapt precision on load signals with no soundness statement, and certified approaches budget request-level risk by a union bound over a pre-declared event count.