The paper introduces the Variability-Aware Recursive Neural Network (VARNN), a residual-aware architecture for supervised time-series regression that learns a nonlinear, vector-valued residual representation from recent prediction errors. VARNN conditions subsequent predictions on this learned residual-memory state, mapping scalar prediction innovations into a short-context representation. Experiments on nine datasets across energy, healthcare, and environmental domains show that VARNN achieves lower test MSE than static, lag-based, and sequence-model baselines, and ablations confirm that the learned residual memory improves predictive accuracy over direct scalar residual feedback.
arXiv:2607. 00197v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Long-horizon multivariate time series forecasting (LTSF) remains challenging due to non-stationarity, regime shifts, and error accumulation.
arXiv:2606. 10678v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Transformer-based models have emerged as leading paradigms in time-series forecasting in recent years, employing self-attention mechanisms to capture long-range dependencies.
arXiv:2606. 06479v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Training recurrent neural networks (RNNs) requires assigning credit across long sequences of computations.
arXiv:2511. 09789v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Recent advances in deep forecasting models have achieved remarkable performance, yet most approaches still struggle to provide both accurate predictions and interpretable insights into temporal dynamics.
arXiv:2607. 28124v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: As forecasts increasingly drive decisions in fields such as energy, transportation, and healthcare, understanding the historical data behind these predictions has become as crucial as the predictions themselves.
arXiv:2606. 18049v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Decision-making with deep learning-based time series forecasting requires not only accurate predictions but also actionable insights.
arXiv:2602. 16224v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Time series data are prone to noise in various domains, and training samples may contain low-predictability patterns that deviate from the normal data distribution, leading to training instability or convergence to poor local minima.
arXiv:2608. 15362v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We propose a methodology based on the standard ReLU Deep Neural Networks (DNN) to make predictions and quantify their uncertainty.
Decision-making with deep learning-based time series forecasting requires not only accurate predictions but also actionable insights. However, current architectures do not inherently provide such information.
arXiv:2603. 15506v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We argue that the current practice of evaluating AI/ML time-series forecasting models, predominantly on benchmarks characterized by strong, persistent periodicities and seasonalities, obscures real progress by overlooking the performance of efficient classical methods.
arXiv:2501. 04339v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We introduce the Deep Convolutional Interpreter for Time Series (DCIts), a deep-learning architecture for nonlinear multivariate time series that provides sample-specific, locally interpretable descriptions of the underlying interaction structure.
arXiv:2607. 05908v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Real-world data distributions evolve over time, inducing temporal distribution shift that can substantially degrade the reliability of deployed machine learning systems.