arXiv:2606. 07572v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Despite Japan being one of the world's largest advanced democracies, the development of election forecasting models for its national elections remains limited.
arXiv:2608. 15871v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) trained on large-scale internet corpora encode extensive statistical regularities about social identities, attitudes, and political behaviour.
Top AI forecasting systems are approaching superforecaster-level accuracy on future world events, but still rely primarily on off-the-shelf LLMs combined with forecasting-specific context gathering and scaffolding. We study how to improve this recipe through ensembling: given a fixed number of samples, which off-the-shelf model forecasts should be combined to maximize accuracy?
arXiv:2601. 20771v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Accurate forecasting of infectious disease incidence is critical for public health planning and timely intervention.
arXiv:2606. 29661v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Top AI forecasting systems are approaching superforecaster-level accuracy on future world events, but still rely primarily on off-the-shelf LLMs combined with forecasting-specific context gathering and scaffolding.
arXiv:2606. 08587v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Statistical post-processing has proven to be an effective tool in improving ensemble forecast of different weather variables.
arXiv:2606. 02663v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Recent advances in machine learning have produced probabilistic weather forecasting models comparable to state-of-the-art numerical weather predictors.
arXiv:2605. 29072v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Accurate estimation and forecasting of energy consumption are important for power-system operation, planning, and demand-side management.
arXiv:2508. 18486v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Over the past few years, machine learning-based data-driven weather prediction has been transforming operational weather forecasting by providing more accurate forecasts while using a mere fraction of computing power compared to traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP).
arXiv:2606. 28795v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, such as k-Nearest Neighbours (kNN) or random forest, eschew the ideal of true data models in favour of predictive performance.
arXiv:2606. 19560v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Seasonal influenza infects millions of people and causes substantial morbidity and mortality in the United States each year, making accurate short-term forecasting a core public-health need.
arXiv:2607. 05103v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Parallel ensemble methods were compared on $56$ small-to-medium tabular classification tasks drawn from OpenML CC18.
arXiv:2407. 00890v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: This paper presents a comparative analysis evaluating the accuracy of Large Language Models (LLMs) against traditional macro time series forecasting approaches.