The paper argues that traditional weather forecast evaluations, which focus on statistical comparisons between forecasts and observations, do not adequately capture how forecasts influence real-world decisions. It introduces decision calibration, a framework that assesses probabilistic forecast performance from the decision-maker’s perspective. Using this framework, the authors compare a machine learning model to a classical numerical weather prediction model across various weather-dependent decision tasks, finding that forecast-level performance does not reliably predict decision-level outcomes and that model rankings can shift depending on the decision context.
By Kornelius Raeth, Nicole Ludwig
arXiv:2608.30795v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: End-to-end weather forecasting systems produce skillful global gridded and station forecasts directly from raw Earth observations, replacing the nume...
By Rodrigo Almeida, Noelia Otero, Jost Arndt, Simon Baur, Wojciech Samek, Jackie Ma
arXiv:2604. 09041v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: AI-based weather forecasting now rivals traditional physics-based ensembles, but state-of-the-art (SOTA) models rely on specialized architectures and massive computational budgets, creating a high barrier to entry.
By Salva R\"uhling Cachay, Duncan Watson-Parris, Rose Yu
The paper introduces Probabilistic Bias Correction (PBC), a machine learning framework that learns to correct historical probabilistic forecasts, thereby reducing systematic errors in subseasonal weather predictions. Applied to leading dynamical and AI models from ECMWF, PBC doubles the AI system’s modest subseasonal skill and improves the operationally-debiased dynamical model for most pressure, temperature, and precipitation targets. In ECMWF’s 2025 real‑time forecasting competition, PBC’s global forecasts ranked first across all weather variables and lead times, outperforming multiple operational and ensemble models.
By Hannah Guan, Soukayna Mouatadid, Paulo Orenstein, Judah Cohen, Haiyu Dong, Zekun Ni, Jeremy Berman, Genevieve Flaspohler, Alex Lu, Jakob Schloer, Joshua Talib, Jonathan A. Weyn, Lester Mackey
arXiv:2604. 16238v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Decision-makers rely on weather forecasts to plant crops, manage wildfires, allocate water and energy, and prepare for weather extremes.
By Hannah Guan, Soukayna Mouatadid, Paulo Orenstein, Judah Cohen, Haiyu Dong, Zekun Ni, Jeremy Berman, Genevieve Flaspohler, Alex Lu, Jakob Schloer, Joshua Talib, Jonathan A. Weyn, Lester Mackey
arXiv:2606. 02663v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Recent advances in machine learning have produced probabilistic weather forecasting models comparable to state-of-the-art numerical weather predictors.
By Saptarishi Dhanuka (Ashoka University), Sarvesh Iyer (Ashoka University), Manmeet Singh (Western Kentucky University), Mihir More (Ashoka University), Rushil Gupta (Ashoka University), Dhruman Gupta (Ashoka University), Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay (Ashoka University), Sandeep Juneja (Ashoka University)