arXiv AI

Comprehensive Evaluation of Machine Learning for Type 2 Diabetes Risk Prediction: Large-Scale External Validation and Fairness Analysis

arXiv:2607. 16253v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Machine learning-based Type 2 diabetes risk prediction models obtain good internal validation results but lose effectiveness in real-world applications due to deficient external testing and fairness assessment.

arXiv AI
Aug 20

FairGlucose: A CGM Fairness Benchmark Reveals Subgroup Disparities Hidden in Population-Level Validation

FairGlucose is a 300‑patient CGM cohort balanced across 12 demographic strata, providing 132,480 forecasting samples and 3,945 behavioral events. Benchmarking 33 models on 2‑hour glucose forecasting revealed that population‑level validation masks significant subgroup disparities, with error ratios ranging from 0.8 to 1.4 and T1D patients experiencing 6 mg/dL higher error than T2D. The study shows that these gaps persist across all models, align with clinically hard cases, and vary with input‑length sensitivity, underscoring the need for subgroup‑disaggregated reporting in digital health AI.

By Junjie Luo, Xuzhe Zhi, Rui Han, Abhimanyu Kumbara, Anand K. Iyer, Mansur E. Shomali, Ritu Agarwal, Guodong Gordon Gao
Hugging Face Trending Papers
Jul 9

FairSelect: A Systematic Evaluation of Multi-Level and Intersectional Algorithmic Fairness

Algorithmic fairness methods are increasingly used to identify and mitigate bias in machine learning models, yet most approaches are evaluated in isolation and along single demographic axes. This limits practical guidance for selecting fairness strategies, where disparities may arise across intersectional subgroups and across multiple stages of the modeling lifecycle.

arXiv Computation and Language
Sep 11

Target leakage, not model class, explains reported accuracy in survey-based cardiovascular screening: a leakage-tiered audit of glass-box and tabular foundation models

The study audited ten different classifiers—including linear, tree‑ensemble, neural, glass‑box, and tabular foundation models—on national health survey data to predict myocardial infarction. By systematically removing features that could cause target leakage, the authors found that all models’ AUROC scores collapsed into a narrow band, indicating that reported high accuracy in prior work was largely due to leakage rather than model sophistication. The glass‑box explainable boosting machine performed comparably to other models while being much faster, and the authors demonstrated that fairness, calibration, and uncertainty can be audited and repaired without sacrificing performance.

By Raad Bin Tareaf, Murad Al-Rajab, Samia Loucif, Samer Ellaham, Cedric Schmitz
arXiv Machine Learning
1d ago

Beyond Demographic Balance: Multi-Metric and Intersectional Evaluation of Fairness in MIMIC-IV Mortality Prediction

The paper examines how fairness conclusions in ICU mortality prediction using MIMIC-IV depend on the choice of metrics and the granularity of demographic analysis. It compares predictive-utility and subgroup-error metrics across various fairness interventions and introduces a lightweight adaptation strategy that balances ethnicity, gender, and insurance representation without conditioning on mortality outcomes. The study finds that different interventions can be evaluated differently across accuracy, sensitivity, and false-positive rate, and that marginal demographic summaries may hide heterogeneous error patterns within intersectional subgroups.

By Abdullah Al Noman, Fahmid Al Rifat, Tahrima Hashem, Syed Muhammad Ibne Zulfiker, Rishov Paul, Tanzima HAshem
arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 2

Early Prediction of Liver Cirrhosis Up to Two Years in Advance: A Machine Learning Study Benchmarking Against the FIB-4 and APRI Scores

arXiv:2601. 00175v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Objective: Develop and evaluate machine learning (ML) models for predicting incident liver cirrhosis (LC) one and two years prior to diagnosis using routinely collected electronic health record (EHR) data and benchmark their performance against the FIB-4 and APRI clinical scores.

By Zhuqi Miao, Ahmed G Qasem, Sujan Ravi, Jason T. Cheng, Abdulaziz Ahmed, Courtney W. Houchen, Sumayah Abed, Dilorom Azimdjanovna Zuparova, Abdulaziz Ahmed
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 18

Machine-Learning Assessment of the Predictive Value of Inflammatory Biomarkers for Cognitive Impairment in an Older Hispanic Adult Cohort

The study evaluates whether inflammatory biomarkers can predict cognitive impairment in older Hispanic adults using interpretable machine learning on a small clinical dataset. A leakage‑safe Bernoulli/Categorical Naive Bayes model was trained on 165 participants from the Panama Aging Research Initiative, with continuous predictors discretized via supervised chi‑square and income treated categorically. The biomarker I‑309 (CCL1) emerged as the sole reliable incremental predictor, boosting ROC‑AUC from 0.630 to 0.740 and achieving statistically significant performance across repeated cross‑validation and random partitions.

By Antony Garcia, Gabrielle Britton, Alcibiades Villarreal, Diana Oviedo, Giselle Rangel, Xinming Huang