arXiv Machine Learning By Md Muhtasim Munif Fahim, M. Monimul Huq, M. Sabiruzzaman, Md Rezaul Karim

Temporal Validation Changes the Apparent Public-Health Utility of Under-Five Mortality Prediction in Bangladesh: A Four-Round DHS Machine-Learning Study

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arXiv:2602. 03957v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Background: Under-five mortality in Bangladesh remains uneven despite national progress.

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arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 22

A Patient World Model for Early Forecasting of Digital Health Campaign Outcomes: Capabilities and Limits

The paper introduces a compact patient world model that forecasts digital health campaign outcomes by maintaining a latent state per patient and learning exposure‑conditioned dynamics. Evaluated on a large US campaign dataset, the model predicts new‑to‑brand prescription volume with low relative error (2.9% at week‑4 cutoff) compared to much higher errors from baseline classifiers. The study also shows that dense next‑exposure supervision is crucial for accurate forecasts when conversions are rare and highlights limitations in interpreting exposure‑conditioned rollouts causally.

By Yunlong Wang
arXiv AI
Jul 21

Comprehensive Evaluation of Machine Learning for Type 2 Diabetes Risk Prediction: Large-Scale External Validation and Fairness Analysis

arXiv:2607. 16253v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Machine learning-based Type 2 diabetes risk prediction models obtain good internal validation results but lose effectiveness in real-world applications due to deficient external testing and fairness assessment.

By Rajveer Singh Pall, Sameer Yadav, Siddharth Bhalerao, Sourabh Sahu, Ritu Ahluwalia, Bhaskar Awadhiya
arXiv Computation and Language
Sep 11

Target leakage, not model class, explains reported accuracy in survey-based cardiovascular screening: a leakage-tiered audit of glass-box and tabular foundation models

The study audited ten different classifiers—including linear, tree‑ensemble, neural, glass‑box, and tabular foundation models—on national health survey data to predict myocardial infarction. By systematically removing features that could cause target leakage, the authors found that all models’ AUROC scores collapsed into a narrow band, indicating that reported high accuracy in prior work was largely due to leakage rather than model sophistication. The glass‑box explainable boosting machine performed comparably to other models while being much faster, and the authors demonstrated that fairness, calibration, and uncertainty can be audited and repaired without sacrificing performance.

By Raad Bin Tareaf, Murad Al-Rajab, Samia Loucif, Samer Ellaham, Cedric Schmitz
arXiv AI
Sep 1

Scalable Clinical Data Infrastructure and Comparative ML Evaluation for Hospitalisation Risk Prediction in Elderly Patients with Multiple Long-Term Conditions using CPRD

arXiv:2608.29419v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deep learning architectures are increasingly proposed for patient trajectory modeling in electronic health records (EHRs), yet their advantage over s...

By Asra Aslam, Volodymyr Chapman, Maurice M. O'Connell, Aseel S. Abuzour, Michael Abaho, Danushka Bollegala, Gary Leeming, Eduard Shantsila, Andrew Clegg, Lauren E. Walker, Iain Edward Buchan, Samuel D. Relton