arXiv Machine Learning By Victor Nascimento Ribeiro, Jorge Guevara, Jorge Sebastian Moraga, Chris Lucas, Natalie Lord, Andrew Taylor, Edward Lockhart, Will Trojak, Johannes Schmude, Anne Jones

Precipitation Downscaling Using Foundation Model-Conditioned Diffusion

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The study evaluates three conditioning strategies for a denoising diffusion probabilistic model to downscale daily precipitation for the Colorado River Basin. Channel concatenation of upsampled coarse predictors yields the lowest point‑wise CRPS and MSE but tends to over‑smooth high‑intensity events. Cross‑attention conditioning—both with a learned encoder and with the frozen encoder of the pretrained Prithvi‑WxC weather foundation model—provides better distributional realism, improved spectral fidelity, and stronger performance on extreme events, especially when data are limited.

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