Scientific weak signals are early, low-visibility research directions that later become central to mature scientific topics, yet existing resources such as trend tracking, citation forecasting, and fo...
arXiv:2602. 20459v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Can AI systems trained on the existing scientific record forecast the advances that will follow?
arXiv:2608. 16645v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Can a language model recover the true research idea of a published paper when given only that paper's pre-publication bibliography?
arXiv:2606. 00644v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: AI research often requires decisions before future evidence exists: which bottleneck to attack, which direction to pursue, or where a project should be positioned.
Can a language model recover the true research idea of a published paper when given only that paper's pre-publication bibliography? We introduce Reconstruction, a blind idea-recovery benchmark that withholds the seed paper and all contemporaneous or future literature, and asks models to propose hypotheses that an independent large language model judge matches against the held-out ground-truth idea.
arXiv:2609.14248v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Faithful citation attribution begins with identifying the intended source for a scientific claim. We study this source-identification capability thro...
arXiv:2606.22342v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: How does research evolve, and can we trace it at the level of individual claims? Scientific progress is not simply a uniform accumulation of facts....
arXiv:2604. 12243v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Identifying promising research directions in fast-moving subareas is one of the most cognitively expensive tasks in modern AI research.
arXiv:2609.22174v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Anticipating emerging research directions is a critical goal of AI-assisted science. Existing methods mainly predict which concepts will co-occur in...
How does research evolve, and what substrate would let us forecast where it goes next? Scientific progress is not simply a uniform accumulation of facts: ideas extend prior methods, address known limitations, realize proposed future directions, and sometimes dispute earlier claims.
arXiv:2609.07611v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Scientific ideation is the capacity to formulate novel and testable hypotheses from scientific evidence, and autonomous AI scientists depend on it. Exi...
arXiv:2609.10092v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) increasingly act as research agents, yet their ability to track shifts in research attention is difficult to evaluate be...