arXiv:2607. 15705v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate load forecasting at multiple grid levels is essential for future smart grids, ranging from aggregated control area forecasts for balancing supply and demand to forecasts of individual end-consumer loads for demand-side management and energy management systems.
LoaDiff is a diffusion-based generative model that produces year-long, sub-hourly smart‑meter electricity consumption time series. It can be conditioned on static household attributes like appliance ownership and dynamic factors such as calendar dates and outdoor temperature. Evaluations on three residential datasets show that LoaDiff generates realistic, diverse load profiles, limits memorization, retains useful information for downstream tasks, and responds coherently to conditioning changes.
arXiv:2609.06656v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Modern power systems are growing increasingly complex as they integrate diverse generation sources to meet rising demand, making accurate load foreca...
arXiv:2607. 16168v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Residential short-term load forecasting (STLF) is challenging because household demand is heterogeneous, temporally variable, and shaped by diverse behavioural routines.
arXiv:2610.07232v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate short-term load forecasting (STLF) is essential for the reliable and efficient operation of modern power systems. While time series foundation...
The paper presents an empirical benchmark of nine deep learning models for smart meter energy forecasting, evaluating them on two public datasets. It examines how historical input length, prediction horizon, and model architecture affect accuracy, finding that longer historical context improves performance up to a saturation point while accuracy declines with longer horizons. The study also compares computational cost, showing lightweight models achieve similar accuracy to heavier ones, and notes that model choice matters less across most population segments.
arXiv:2511. 09789v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Short-term energy forecasting plays an important role in real-time operational decision-making, such as electricity market bidding and power system dispatch, where both numerical accuracy and correct directional signals are essential.
The paper presents an empirical benchmark of nine modern deep‑learning models for time‑series forecasting of smart‑meter energy consumption, evaluated on two publicly available datasets. It examines how historical input length, prediction horizon, and model architecture affect accuracy, finding that longer historical context improves performance up to a saturation point and that accuracy declines with longer horizons. The study also compares computational complexity, showing that lightweight architectures achieve similar performance to heavier models, and notes that model choice has limited impact across most demographic and household subgroups.
arXiv:2606. 17692v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate short-term electricity load forecasting is critical for the reliable and economic operation of modern power systems, under non-stationarity arising from weather variability, calendar effects, and evolving consumption patterns.
The paper investigates how model initialization affects federated short‑term load forecasting (STLF) when client data are heterogeneous. It introduces two strategies: a global pretrained initialization using auxiliary public load data to reduce client drift, and a local sequential initialization (SLIAvg) that lets clients start from progressively adapted models each round. Experiments on real smart‑meter data show these methods improve convergence and lower forecasting errors while remaining compatible with existing federated learning frameworks.
arXiv:2608. 04695v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Federated adaptation of time-series foundation models (TSFMs) is attractive for building energy forecasting because meter data are private, distributed, and highly non-IID.
arXiv:2607. 12730v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Smart-building load forecasters are often trained offline on dense, multivariate, high-frequency data, but deployment may provide only hourly, feature-limited inputs.