Power grids, markets, and interacting populations, settle into feedback driven equilibria observed through unknown sensors. Our Equilibrium Causal Game (ECG) joins a game to its cyclic causal model, hidden inputs, sensor map, and rules for interventions and equilibrium selection; interventions edit declared objects and recompute equilibrium.
arXiv:2607. 19531v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Power grids, markets, and interacting populations, settle into feedback driven equilibria observed through unknown sensors.
arXiv:2606. 04822v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Causal modeling of physical temporal phenomena must handle interventions that act along trajectories, nonstationary induced laws, path-dependent effects, and feedback mediated by dynamics, all challenging in standard causal models.
arXiv:2608. 19831v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Causal Bayesian networks (CBNs) and structural causal models (SCMs) are the dominant frameworks for graphical causal reasoning, but they cannot adequately represent all real-world causal systems.
arXiv:2606. 12502v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We propose that value -- the quantity goal-directed agents create, destroy, and exchange -- is a lawful structural quantity in the same category as information.
arXiv:2607. 07206v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Optimizer experiments observe responses to algorithmic configurations without uniquely revealing hidden mechanisms.
arXiv:2608. 11954v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Structured potential outcomes such as microscopy images may be recorded after an unknown, unit-specific transformation.
arXiv:2608. 15645v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Transporting a causal conclusion from a source study population to a target one is a fundamental problem in causal inference.
The paper introduces the concept of causal retention in interactive agents, examining whether a frozen learned state can correctly answer a mechanism‑probe map that is fixed independently of training. It shows that for finite structural causal models the optimal probe error is a Bayes decision risk, vanishing only when each learning‑interface fiber lies within a single probe‑answer fiber, and provides theoretical results such as a posterior‑coverage theorem and an exact edit decomposition. Experiments on finite causal systems, continuous simulators, TD‑MPC2, and Qwen2.5‑7B‑Instruct demonstrate that causal retention can be achieved with high accuracy, outperforming task‑performance‑based approaches.
The paper studies when joint-embedding predictive architectures (JEPAs) can recover underlying causal states from high‑dimensional observations. It introduces a latent variable model where observations arise from causal states with action‑conditioned dynamics, and proposes an information‑theoretic objective that maximizes conditional likelihood while preserving state entropy. The authors prove identifiability conditions—particularly sufficient action‑induced variation—and instantiate the objective as an action‑modulated Gaussian additive‑noise model (A‑JEPA), demonstrating theoretical and empirical success in synthetic and visual benchmarks.
arXiv:2607. 20708v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A recent line of work measures causal emergence in reinforcement learning agents through Integrated Information Decomposition, reporting that $\Phi_r$ grows with training and tracks reward improvement.
The paper introduces a formal framework that uses symmetries in data to keep causal mechanisms invariant, providing a simple and general mathematical language for causal reasoning. It outlines how to describe models and queries, and presents strategies for rigorously identifying causal effects from data within this framework. The approach reproduces known results for IID data and extends causal analysis to non‑IID settings, complex queries beyond do‑ or soft‑interventions, and incorporates missing data, transfer, and robustness considerations.
arXiv:2608. 07809v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A world model is only useful for physical AI if it changes what the agent does, and only safe if it declines to do so when it is wrong.