arXiv:2606. 18857v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Machine-learning emulators are increasingly used for weather prediction and have the potential to extend skill on subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales by learning dynamically important sources of predictability.
arXiv:2510. 02415v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Machine learning models for the global atmosphere that are capable of producing stable, multi-year simulations of Earth's climate have recently been developed.
Data-driven models now rival numerical weather prediction in the medium range, but extending them to sub-seasonal lead times raises challenges absent at shorter horizons. Errors accumulate over long autoregressive rollouts, systematic biases grow with lead time, and several years of data must be held out for independent verification, even though machine-learning models otherwise benefit from longer training records.
arXiv:2605. 29976v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We evaluate the climate simulation capabilities of ArchesWeather and ArchesWeatherGen, two machine learning models originally trained for weather forecasting and evaluated up to a 10-day lead time.
arXiv:2605.16929v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Global climate models are essential tools to simulate past and potential future pathways of climate change, as well as associated climate impacts....
arXiv:2607. 28220v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Atmospheric predictability declines rapidly beyond the next ten days, such that forecasts at longer lead times primarily convey large-scale trends rather than specific states.
arXiv:2606. 19026v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Forecast errors in high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems are often linked to unresolved planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes, convection, terrain-induced circulations, and other vertically structured atmospheric phenomena.
Atmospheric predictability declines rapidly beyond the next ten days, such that forecasts at longer lead times primarily convey large-scale trends rather than specific states. Yet in a warming world, improving early warnings of extreme heat is an increasingly critical challenge.
arXiv:2607. 05100v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Data-driven models now rival numerical weather prediction in the medium range, but extending them to sub-seasonal lead times raises challenges absent at shorter horizons.
arXiv:2504. 20238v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Atmospheric predictability research has long held that rapid error growth at small spatial scales imposes an intrinsic limit of roughly two weeks on deterministic weather forecast skill.
arXiv:2606. 26389v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Sea state prediction is essential for operational maritime applications and coupled earth system modeling, yet current spectral wave models remain computationally prohibitive for many use cases, including online coupling to climate simulations and making probabilistic (ensemble-based) predictions.
arXiv:2608. 09971v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Over the past few years, the rapid development of machine learning (ML) models for weather forecasting has produced deterministic models whose medium-range skill matches or exceeds that of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)'s high-resolution forecast (HRES).
arXiv:2608.30795v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: End-to-end weather forecasting systems produce skillful global gridded and station forecasts directly from raw Earth observations, replacing the nume...