arXiv:2608. 07224v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Motivated by LLMs, which generate outputs by iteratively sampling from next-token distributions, we introduce a PAC-learning model for binary stochastic autoregressive learning.
arXiv:2607. 07423v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We prove that, in the realizable PAC setting, the sample complexity of exact-trace learning for full autoregressive Chain-of-Thought traces is upper bounded by the standard multiclass rate of the local next-token class, where this rate is governed by the Daniely--Shalev-Shwartz dimension.
arXiv:2608. 06337v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: A monotone adversary observes an i.
arXiv:2603. 06957v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We study post-training linear autoregressive models with outcome and process rewards.
The paper introduces a leave‑a‑window‑out estimator for next‑token functionals, such as the surprise probability and test error, in sequences of random variables. By deleting a window of length τ after each index, the estimator generalizes leave‑one‑out and achieves parametric error decay for stationary β‑mixing processes that admit a Marton coupling. The authors provide both upper bounds and a minimax lower bound for the surprise probability, and demonstrate through simulations that their method outperforms traditional baselines on Markov, moving‑average, and autoregressive processes.
Suppose we observe the first $n$ points of a sequence of random variables having length $n+1$, and wish to estimate a functional of the unobserved final point and the empirical measure of the $n$ obse...
The paper presents empirical scaling laws for autoregressive language models, linking prediction loss to model size, data size, and compute, and investigates their theoretical basis using a teacher–student linear RNN framework. In this tractable setting, a stable latent linear RNN generates trajectories while a sketched linear recurrent student is trained via full‑batch WSD gradient descent on next‑token prediction. The study derives explicit approximation, optimization, and statistical scaling laws that depend on the sketch dimension, number of trajectories, and trajectory length, revealing how different power‑law exponents for innovation and initialization covariances affect the rates and crossovers between regimes.
arXiv:2609.36945v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study the learning dynamics of fine-tuning a policy model on self-generated and reward-weighted data, with particular focus on a generalized version...
arXiv:2609. 07997v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We characterize the sharp structure-agnostic minimax risk for coefficient estimation in the partial linear model when the outcome and treatment nuisances are learned by two distinct black-box learners, which resolves the open problem in double machine learning posed by Gu (2025).
arXiv:2602. 05657v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The study of tail behaviour of SGD-induced processes has been attracting a lot of interest, due to offering strong guarantees with respect to individual runs of an algorithm.
We study the problem of \emph{adversarially robust} PAC learning. In this framework, the learner observes independent samples from an unknown distribution over $\mathcal{X} \times \{0,1\}$, as in clas...
arXiv:2609.37535v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In the softmax output layer, a rare token receives a small positive logit gradient on most steps and a much larger negative gradient on the few steps w...
arXiv:2510. 14074v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We develop a framework for analyzing the learning dynamics of high-dimensional problems trained using one-pass stochastic gradient descent (SGD) with data from multiple anisotropic classes.