arXiv Machine Learning

Sharp Structure-Agnostic Minimax Risk for Partial Linear Models

arXiv:2609. 07997v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We characterize the sharp structure-agnostic minimax risk for coefficient estimation in the partial linear model when the outcome and treatment nuisances are learned by two distinct black-box learners, which resolves the open problem in double machine learning posed by Gu (2025).

arXiv Machine Learning
Jun 15

A Complexity Measure for Active Learning in Multi-group Mean Estimation

arXiv:2606. 14690v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study a \emph{max-risk} objective for active learning in a multi-group mean estimation $d$-armed bandits: a learner adaptively allocates a budget of $T$ samples across $d$ groups to minimize the worst-case uncertainty index $\max_{k\in[d]}\sigma_k^2/n_k$, where $\sigma_k$ is the standard deviation of the distribution of arm $d$, and $n_k$ is the number of times arm $d$ is sampled.

By Abdellah Aznag, Rachel Cummings, Adam N. Elmachtoub
arXiv Statistics ML
Sep 7

Reconciling Universal and Uniform Learning with $Q$-Aggregation

The paper investigates regression with bounded responses, comparing two learning frameworks: model selection aggregation, which requires improper algorithms to achieve minimax excess risk, and universal learning, where empirical risk minimization suffices for exponential learning rates. For finite hypothesis classes, the authors show that the $Q$-aggregation estimator simultaneously attains minimax optimal tails and exponential universal rates, while other common estimators fail to do so. For countably infinite classes, they prove an inherent trade‑off between exponential universal and minimax uniform rates, resolved by combining optimal algorithms from each framework via $Q$-aggregation.

By Mikael M{\o}ller H{\o}gsgaard, Patrick Rebeschini, Tobias Wegel
arXiv Statistics ML
Sep 7

On the Asymptotic Inadmissibility of Double Machine Learning Estimators Under Structure-Agnostic Models

The paper investigates Double Machine Learning (DML) estimators under structure‑agnostic (SA) models, which assume the data‑generating law lies within a neighborhood of fixed machine‑learning estimates. It shows that for two of three studied functionals—the quadratic functional in the Gaussian sequence model and the quadratic density integral functional—the DML estimators are asymptotically inadmissible, being dominated by second‑order empirical higher‑order influence function (HOIF) estimators. For the third functional, the expected conditional covariance, both DML and HOIF estimators remain minimax but neither dominates the other.

By Lin Liu, Rajarshi Mukherjee, James M Robins
arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 22

Approximate Solomonoff Induction: On the Robustness of Learned Universal Predictors

The paper investigates how well practical machine‑learning algorithms approximate Solomonoff’s universal predictor when trained by minimizing log‑loss over diverse datasets. It establishes tight bounds on the worst‑case increase in prediction error caused by approximating the Bayesian mixture predictor, showing that while the excess error can be large in low‑prior environments, it remains bounded on average and under distribution shifts. The authors also extend their analysis to finite‑sample settings relevant to neural networks and Transformers.

By Qian Li, Shang-Hua Teng
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 18

The First-Order Oracle Complexity of Lipschitz Convex Optimization in Nondual Settings

arXiv:2609. 20687v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We study first-order black-box convex optimization over an $\ell_p$-ball for objectives Lipschitz in the $\ell_q$-norm, solving in the affirmative the nonsmooth version of the COLT open question (Guz15b) on whether the geometry of a smaller feasible set ($p < q$) can improve convergence rates in convex optimization, and matching prior lower bounds up to logarithmic factors.

By David Mart\'inez-Rubio, Brian Bullins, Crist\'obal Guzm\'an, Mathieu Molina