arXiv Machine Learning

PERRY: Policy Evaluation with Confidence Intervals using Auxiliary Data

arXiv:2507. 20068v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Off-policy evaluation (OPE) methods estimate the value of a new reinforcement learning (RL) policy prior to deployment.

arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 8

Model-based Bootstrap of Controlled Markov Chains

arXiv:2605. 12410v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We propose and analyze a model-based bootstrap for transition kernels in finite controlled Markov chains (CMCs) with possibly nonstationary or history-dependent control policies, a setting that arises naturally in offline reinforcement learning (RL) when the behavior policy generating the data is unknown.

By Ziwei Su, Imon Banerjee, Diego Klabjan
arXiv AI
Jul 15

From Critic to Confidence: PPO for Language-Based Quantitative Prediction with Confidence Estimation

arXiv:2607. 12687v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: LLMs can perform language-based quantitative prediction from unstructured inputs, but remain susceptible to hallucinations and overconfident errors, making it critical to know not only what a model predicts, but when its predictions can be trusted.

By Mehak Dhaliwal, Rasta Tadayon, Andong Hua, Haewon Jeong, Yao Qin
arXiv AI
Jun 2

Value Flows

arXiv:2510. 07650v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: While most reinforcement learning methods today flatten the distribution of future returns to a single scalar value, distributional RL methods exploit the return distribution to provide stronger learning signals and to enable applications in exploration and safe RL.

By Perry Dong, Chongyi Zheng, Chelsea Finn, Dorsa Sadigh, Benjamin Eysenbach