The paper performs a systematic hyperparameter search across five deep learning architectures (DLinear, LSTM, PatchTST, ResAttLstm, and Mamba2) and nine context lengths for forecasting significant wave height (Hs) at a single buoy, then re‑evaluates the best configurations on a 47‑buoy, 37‑year dataset. Across all models, performance converges to a very small spread (SD = 0.0014 m², 0.8% of the grand mean), yet all models still outperform persistence, though none consistently outperforms the others. The study finds that persistence already captures the dominant linear‑inertial signal in univariate Hs, and that model‑class differences are dwarfed by cross‑buoy variance, suggesting diminishing returns for further architecture engineering under univariate input settings.
arXiv:2602. 16579v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Reliable global streamflow forecasting is essential for flood preparedness and water resource management, yet data-driven models often suffer from a performance gap when transitioning from historical reanalysis to operational forecast products.
arXiv:2607. 16080v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Precipitation nowcasting over the immediate 10-90 min period is important for flood management and real-time decision-making in urban regions.
Data-driven models now rival numerical weather prediction in the medium range, but extending them to sub-seasonal lead times raises challenges absent at shorter horizons. Errors accumulate over long autoregressive rollouts, systematic biases grow with lead time, and several years of data must be held out for independent verification, even though machine-learning models otherwise benefit from longer training records.
arXiv:2607. 05100v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Data-driven models now rival numerical weather prediction in the medium range, but extending them to sub-seasonal lead times raises challenges absent at shorter horizons.
arXiv:2606. 26421v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: State-of-the-art medium-range AI weather models can outperform traditional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) but require massive training budgets.
arXiv:2506.12809v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: The long horizon forecasting (LHF) problem has come up in the time series literature for over the last 35 years or so. This review covers aspects o...
arXiv:2512. 03606v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Accurate marine wind forecasts are essential for safe navigation, ship routing, and energy operations, yet they remain challenging because observations over the ocean are sparse, heterogeneous, and temporally variable.
State-of-the-art medium-range AI weather models can outperform traditional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) but require massive training budgets. This restricts usage for under-resourced groups and severely limits fast model iteration.
arXiv:2607. 27152v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Accurate intraday forecasts of offshore wind are becoming increasingly important for power system operation and the integration of growing shares of offshore wind energy.
arXiv:2609.25505v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Rapid intensification (RI) remains one of the most consequential and difficult aspects of tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting. Although full-physics nu...
arXiv:2604.06433v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The impact of wave-induced forcing on the mean water level and nearshore currents is typically modeled through excess momentum fluxes, also k...
arXiv:2606. 08630v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Global wind power capacity, especially in China, is booming, with new farms spanning diverse terrains and climates.