arXiv:2608. 00063v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Europe is warming faster than the global mean, yet the spatial organisation of this acceleration remains incompletely understood.
arXiv:2608. 09966v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: European summer warming reflects interactions among background change, persistent ocean--land--circulation states, and same-season variability.
arXiv:2609.37499v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Historical archives are an under-used source for extending the instrumental climate record backward in time, and LLMs offer a way to extract the indice...
arXiv:2607. 05100v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Data-driven models now rival numerical weather prediction in the medium range, but extending them to sub-seasonal lead times raises challenges absent at shorter horizons.
Data-driven models now rival numerical weather prediction in the medium range, but extending them to sub-seasonal lead times raises challenges absent at shorter horizons. Errors accumulate over long autoregressive rollouts, systematic biases grow with lead time, and several years of data must be held out for independent verification, even though machine-learning models otherwise benefit from longer training records.
arXiv:2608. 09971v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Over the past few years, the rapid development of machine learning (ML) models for weather forecasting has produced deterministic models whose medium-range skill matches or exceeds that of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)'s high-resolution forecast (HRES).
The paper evaluates a physics-informed neural network (PINN) for short‑horizon atmospheric temperature forecasting where observations are sparse. Using ERA5 data at three pressure levels, the PINN outperforms persistence, local‑trend, and two neural‑network baselines, with mean RMSE improvements ranging from 8.1 % at one hour to 23.8 % at three hours. The advantage persists under severe observation sparsity and transfers across regions, though it degrades in complex terrain, highlighting limits of a fixed vertical‑coordinate representation.
arXiv:2608. 09972v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: First-generation AI weather models are often reported to underperform at extremes, mostly in reanalysis-based evaluations of deterministic regression systems.
arXiv:2606. 17553v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Geographic tipping points in ecosystems, climate subsystems, or ice sheets pose severe challenges for localized early warning.
arXiv:2607. 18298v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We show that a single climate realization can be decomposed into forced and internal components by treating external forcing as a dynamical driver within a linear stochastic system, an idea grounded in pullback attractor theory.
arXiv:2607. 19383v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Pretrained generative foundation models cast forecasting as conditional generation from a learned predictive distribution and forecast unseen series zero-shot.
arXiv:2608.23857v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Urban heat islands (UHIs) are intensifying under climate change, exacerbating thermal exposure risks. Their two primary observations, land surface temp...
OceanDepths is the first open, global, AI‑ready dataset that pairs satellite‑derived sea surface temperature, salinity, and height with co‑located EN4 subsurface temperature and salinity profiles, complemented by GLORYS12 reanalysis data. It covers 2000–2024 at 0.1°×0.1° spatial resolution and weekly temporal resolution, providing over 9.5 million paired profiles interpolated to 50 depth levels. The dataset’s 4‑D multivariate structure, high resolution, long temporal extent, and extreme sparsity of subsurface observations make it a challenging testbed for novel AI methods, with demonstrated use in subsurface state reconstruction and potential for observation‑based forecasting.