arXiv AI

Beyond Thresholds: A Quality-Aware Decision Intelligence Framework for Cold Chain IoT Systems

arXiv:2608. 15082v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Cold chain logistics has advanced technologically, yet most deployed systems remain reactive monitors, not decision-making agents: thresholds trigger alerts, but nothing relates violations to cumulative product degradation or converts degradation signals into logistics decisions.

arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 29

Auditing System-1 Models on Biosecurity-Relevant Benchmarks: Calibration, Selective Prediction, and Permutation Instability in a Non-Generative Model

The paper audits a commercial non‑generative System‑1 model on biosecurity‑relevant benchmarks, evaluating accuracy, calibration, error detection, selective prediction, and sensitivity to answer‑option order. It finds that the model’s accuracy varies strongly by task, is reasonably well calibrated when the vendor’s uncertainty field is interpreted correctly, and that option order can cause significant prediction changes—averaging across rotations improves accuracy. The study also shows that applying averaging only to low‑confidence items recovers most of the gain at a lower cost.

By Kimon Antonios Provatas, Ilias Georgakopoulos-Soares
arXiv AI
Sep 2

Counterfactual Fragility Certificates: Exposing High-Confidence Brittleness under Structured Evidence Failure

The paper introduces Counterfactual Fragility Certificates (CFC), a model‑agnostic audit protocol that maps each prediction to an evidence‑failure trajectory, summarizing it with metrics such as greedy flip budget, margin‑collapse area, degradation thresholds, and fragility dominance score. CFC is shown to identify brittle high‑confidence predictions on seven tabular benchmarks with an AUROC of 0.915, outperforming existing scalar scores by up to +0.405. The method remains effective across various perturbation and review‑budget scenarios, and can also inform fragility‑aware regularization and temperature correction.

By Filippo Cenacchi, Longbing Cao, Runze Yang
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 31

The Instability of Safety: How Random Seeds and Temperature Expose Inconsistent LLM Refusal Behavior

The paper challenges the assumption that large language models (LLMs) produce deterministic safety responses by examining how random seeds and temperature settings affect refusal decisions. Across four instruction‑tuned models and 876 harmful prompts, 18‑28% of prompts flipped between refusal and compliance depending on sampling configuration, with higher temperatures reducing decision stability. The authors introduce a Safety Stability Index (SSI) and recommend multi‑sample evaluation protocols that account for stochastic variation rather than relying on single‑shot tests.

By Erik Larsen
arXiv AI
Sep 10

Simulating the Marginal Green Contribution of AI Modules in a Smart-Agriculture Platform: Evidence from Two Monte Carlo Experiments

The paper evaluates the green benefits of individual AI modules within a smart‑agriculture platform through two Monte Carlo simulations. In Experiment 1, AI diagnosis significantly increases the likelihood of reducing pesticide and fertilizer use compared to traditional extension services, with up to a 49 % probability of a 20 % pesticide reduction when accuracy and adoption are high. Experiment 2 shows that adding AI irrigation scheduling to IoT‑based engineering yields a 5 percentage‑point increase in median water savings and a 30.5 % reduction in paddy methane emissions, while farmer adoption remains the key limiting factor for achieving green targets.

By Zhaoyang Li, Ruijie Zhang, Zhaoji Sun, Lu Zhang