arXiv:2609.16055v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Test-time compute has emerged as a major approach to improving the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, existing test-time reasonin...
arXiv:2510. 27544v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Temporal reasoning involves understanding how systems evolve over time through input-driven state transitions.
The paper introduces the Token Economy Score (TES), a metric that quantifies the accuracy gain of reasoning-capable large language models relative to non-reasoning baselines, normalized by token generation cost. An empirical study across 151 runs on seven diverse benchmarks shows that task structure—such as sequential inference chains—predicts higher TES, while knowledge-recall tasks yield lower TES despite difficulty. The analysis also reveals diminishing returns at higher reasoning effort and highlights how deployment context, via Reasoning Cost Share and Deployment Cost Multiplier, can alter the economic viability of reasoning workloads.
arXiv:2606. 12481v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong reasoning and instruction-following capabilities, making them potentially powerful tools for time-series analysis.
arXiv:2608. 12307v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Recent work on distillation transfers the capabilities of large models to smaller ones often by updating the latter's parameters, through teacher forcing, on-policy distillation, and related training-time methods.
arXiv:2607. 25554v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Future event prediction carries broad social impact yet remains challenging.
arXiv:2610.23521v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) can now perceive, describe, and reason about images and audio, yet time series understanding remains underestimated: most...
The paper introduces a method to control reasoning behaviors in Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) language models by labeling sentence-level segments with six distinct reasoning behaviors (planning, execution, restatement, fact, reflection, and conclusion). Linear probes on MoE router logits can predict these behaviors nearly as accurately as probes on the full hidden state, enabling the authors to edit router scores during inference to reduce overthinking. This intervention cuts generated tokens by a median of 30.4% (up to 63.3%) across multiple models and benchmarks without significant loss in accuracy, and often improves it.
Recent work on distillation transfers the capabilities of large models to smaller ones often by updating the latter's parameters, through teacher forcing, on-policy distillation, and related training-time methods. In this paper, we ask whether such transfer can instead occur at test time.
arXiv:2609.13457v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Timeseries multimodal large language models (TS-MLLMs) have recently begun leveraging the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) for qu...
The paper proposes a unified framework for test‑time reasoning methods, framing them as recursion operators—GROW, PRUNE, and BRANCH—applied to an agent’s reasoning trace. Experiments across five benchmarks and three frontier models show that BRANCH, which samples and selects among multiple reasoning paths, consistently outperforms the other operators and a single‑pass chain‑of‑thought baseline, improving accuracy by an average of 5.98 percentage points. The study also highlights the importance of paired evaluation and careful handling of scoring‑pipeline failures, as these factors can significantly alter comparative outcomes.
arXiv:2506. 10630v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: To advance time series forecasting (TSF), various methods have been proposed to improve prediction accuracy, evolving from statistical techniques to data-driven deep learning architectures.