BayesNDE is a neural density estimator that uses Bayesian generative modeling to estimate densities without relying on invertible networks or Jacobian-determinant calculations. It constructs an adaptive proposal for each observation by inferring a sample-specific latent posterior, and then applies bridge sampling to combine proposal samples with separate posterior samples for density estimation. Experiments on synthetic datasets show improved density estimation and structure recovery, while real-world applications demonstrate better anomaly detection.
By Chenglin Li, Qiao Liu
arXiv:2503.17894v4 Announce Type: replace-cross
Abstract: We propose a generative learner for estimating conditional average treatment effects and characterizing the full distribution of these effect...
By Maria Nareklishvili, Nicholas Polson, Vadim Sokolov
The paper introduces a conditional Wasserstein GAN to approximate posterior distributions in compound loss models, conditioning on sufficient statistics, prior mean, coefficient of variation, and mixture weights. A single generator can learn the posteriors for both Poisson intensity and Pareto shape parameters across Gamma, inverse‑Gaussian, and lognormal priors. The authors validate the approach with simulation‑based calibration, analytical comparisons, and extensive MCMC, and apply it to extreme natural catastrophe loss data to generate rolling one‑year posterior predictive distributions and assess tail risk under heavy‑tailed severity and prior uncertainty.
By Aleksandar Arandjelovic, Pavel V. Shevchenko, George Tzougas
arXiv:2503.17894v3 Announce Type: replace-cross
Abstract: We propose generative learner for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects and characterizing the full distribution of causal effects. The...
By Maria Nareklishvili, Nicholas Polson, Vadim Sokolov
arXiv:2606. 27286v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Mechanistic epidemiological models are widely used to support infectious disease forecasting and public-health decision making.
By Alina Bazarova, Johann Fredrik Jadebeck, Henrik Zunker, Carolina J. Klett-Tammen, Torben Heinsohn, Wolfgang Wiechert, Katharina Noeh, Stefan Kesselheim
The paper introduces JSP-GFN, a Generative Flow Network that jointly infers the structure and parameters of a Bayesian Network. It sequentially generates a directed acyclic graph edge by edge and then samples the corresponding conditional probability parameters once the full structure is known. Experiments on simulated and real data show that JSP‑GFN accurately approximates the joint posterior and outperforms existing methods.
By Tristan Deleu, Mizu Nishikawa-Toomey, Jithendaraa Subramanian, Esmeralda S. Whitammer, Laurent Charlin, Yoshua Bengio
arXiv:2605. 01765v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Mediation analysis has traditionally focused on outcome-level summary contrasts, such as mean effects, which may obscure substantial distributional changes induced by complex and nonlinear causal mechanisms.
By Jinlun Zhang, Haoneng Huang, Zishu Zhan, Chunquan Ou
arXiv:2604. 04342v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Many data-driven decision problems are formulated using a nominal distribution estimated from historical data, while performance is ultimately determined by a deployment distribution that may be shifted, context-dependent, partially observed, or stress-induced.
By Xiuyuan Cheng, Yunqin Zhu, Yao Xie
The paper introduces Particle GFlowNets, showing that Generative Marginalization Models (MaMs) are equivalent to Generative Flow Networks. It extends MaMs to non‑autoregressive sampling and proposes an automatic full‑state rejuvenation criterion based on the Gelman‑Rubin statistic to accelerate learning. Experiments demonstrate significant training speedups in large combinatorial spaces.
By Tiago da Silva, Diego Mesquita, Salem Lahlou
The paper introduces prequential posteriors, a Bayesian approach that uses a predictive‑sequential loss function to update deep generative forecasting models (DGFMs) when new data arrive. By adopting a consistency notion suitable for model misspecification, the authors prove that both the loss minimizer and the posterior concentrate on parameters with optimal predictive performance. Scalable inference is achieved with parallelisable waste‑free sequential Monte Carlo samplers that employ preconditioned gradient kernels, and the method is validated on synthetic and real meteorological time‑series data.
By Shreya Sinha-Roy, Richard G. Everitt, Christian P. Robert, Ritabrata Dutta
arXiv:2605. 18931v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Heavy-tailed distributions are prevalent in performance evaluation, network traffic, and risk modeling.
By Abdelhakim Ziani, Andras Horvath, Paolo Ballarini
arXiv:2607. 03190v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Scenario-based transportation analysis specifies future assumptions through aggregate population targets, whereas generative population synthesis models produce detailed individual-level realizations.
By Zhenlin Qin, Leizhen Wang, Yancheng Ling, Zhenliang Ma