The paper introduces a conditional Wasserstein GAN to approximate posterior distributions in compound loss models, conditioning on sufficient statistics, prior mean, coefficient of variation, and mixture weights. A single generator can learn the posteriors for both Poisson intensity and Pareto shape parameters across Gamma, inverse‑Gaussian, and lognormal priors. The authors validate the approach with simulation‑based calibration, analytical comparisons, and extensive MCMC, and apply it to extreme natural catastrophe loss data to generate rolling one‑year posterior predictive distributions and assess tail risk under heavy‑tailed severity and prior uncertainty.
arXiv:2604. 04342v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Many data-driven decision problems are formulated using a nominal distribution estimated from historical data, while performance is ultimately determined by a deployment distribution that may be shifted, context-dependent, partially observed, or stress-induced.
arXiv:2605. 18931v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Heavy-tailed distributions are prevalent in performance evaluation, network traffic, and risk modeling.
This paper introduces a generative model that minimizes the second‑order Wasserstein loss (W₂) by solving a distribution‑dependent ordinary differential equation (ODE) whose dynamics involve the Kantorovich potential of the true data distribution and its current estimate. The authors prove that the time‑marginal laws of this ODE form a gradient flow for the W₂ loss, converging exponentially to the true data distribution, and propose an Euler scheme that recovers this gradient flow in the limit. An algorithm based on this scheme, combined with persistent training, is shown in experiments to outperform Wasserstein GANs in both low‑ and high‑dimensional settings when the level of persistent training is appropriately increased.
The paper introduces prequential posteriors, a Bayesian approach that uses a predictive‑sequential loss function to update deep generative forecasting models (DGFMs) when new data arrive. By adopting a consistency notion suitable for model misspecification, the authors prove that both the loss minimizer and the posterior concentrate on parameters with optimal predictive performance. Scalable inference is achieved with parallelisable waste‑free sequential Monte Carlo samplers that employ preconditioned gradient kernels, and the method is validated on synthetic and real meteorological time‑series data.
arXiv:2606. 10023v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate posterior estimation is central to scientific inference, as uncertainties determine what can be reliably learned from observational data.
arXiv:2607. 04360v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conditional generative models have emerged as powerful tools for sampling from target conditional distributions, driving substantial advances across a wide range of scientific and applied domains.
arXiv:2608. 11544v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We propose CVaR-penalized Generative Particle Algorithm (CVaR-GPA), a robust, tail-agnostic algorithm for fine-tuning generative models to learn heavy-tailed distributions and capture extreme events, requiring no prior knowledge or estimation of the target's tail characteristics.
arXiv:2607. 24983v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Generative models are increasingly adopted in distributionally robust optimization (DRO), but existing approaches trade off model compatibility and adversarial structure: methods that accept arbitrary samplers do not restrict worst-case laws to a generator family, while generator-parameterized adversaries rely on model-specific access such as likelihoods, scores, or training data.
arXiv:2609.01410v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Generative data augmentation is widely used to mitigate class imbalance, yet its theoretical effect on downstream generalization remains poorly under...
arXiv:2606. 01002v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Engression is a recently proposed and effective framework for conditional distribution learning.
arXiv:2502. 07580v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We present a novel view of diffusion-like generative modeling from the perspective of iterative Gaussian posterior inference.
arXiv:2504. 01894v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We present a bifidelity method for uncertainty quantification of parameter estimates in complex systems, leveraging generative models trained to sample the target conditional distribution.