arXiv:2505. 15437v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Reliable probability estimates by classifiers are essential in high-risk applications.
arXiv:2602. 14913v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Conformal prediction (CP) offers distribution-free marginal coverage guarantees under an exchangeability assumption, but these guarantees can fail if the data distribution shifts.
arXiv:2606. 28598v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Prediction sets should have high coverage to be useful, but some coverage notions are more practically relevant than others.
arXiv:2602. 01733v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Conformal Prediction (CP) provides a statistical framework for uncertainty quantification that constructs prediction sets with coverage guarantees.
arXiv:2606. 31577v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conformal predictions have attracted significant attention in the field of uncertainty quantification, mainly because of their strong marginal coverage guarantees.
arXiv:2608. 10372v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Post-hoc calibration aligns a classifier's predicted confidences with its empirical accuracy without retraining.
arXiv:2606. 03600v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Standard conformal prediction (CP) procedures are typically formulated in terms of p-values, but reliance on p-values alone limits flexibility, for example, when combining dependent evidence across models or data splits.
arXiv:2606. 11865v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Conformal Bayes combines Bayesian posterior predictives with conformal calibration to produce prediction sets that are both statistically valid and geometrically efficient.
Conformal Bayes combines Bayesian posterior predictives with conformal calibration to produce prediction sets that are both statistically valid and geometrically efficient. We study conformal Bayes under label shift from a unified perspective, identifying two complementary approaches that restore nominal target-domain coverage through importance-weighted conformal calibration but operate through independent mechanisms.
Reliable confidence estimates are essential in semantic segmentation, especially in safety-critical settings where overconfident errors can mislead downstream decisions. Yet modern segmentation models often remain miscalibrated.
arXiv:2605. 30188v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Reliable probability estimates are critical in many machine learning applications, yet modern classifiers are often poorly calibrated.
arXiv:2607. 07745v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: While accuracy, robustness, and calibration are all essential for reliable neural networks, they are often studied separately; developing models that satisfy all three simultaneously remains a central challenge.
arXiv:2505. 19033v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Conformal prediction (CP) is a widely used frequentist framework to quantify uncertainty by constructing prediction sets with user-specified marginal coverage guarantees.