arXiv Statistics ML

Cointegrated Regressors: Where Folded Concave Penalties Go Beyond LASSO

The paper discusses the limitations of LASSO in high‑dimensional regression models when cointegrated regressors are present, noting that the convex penalty can overly shrink their coefficients and lead to inconsistent estimation. It proposes using folded concave penalties (FCP), such as SCAD and MCP, to overcome this issue, establishing both local and global oracle properties for the penalized regression. Simulation results and an application to euro area unemployment forecasting demonstrate that FCP improves variable selection and out‑of‑sample prediction compared to LASSO.

arXiv Statistics ML
Aug 31

Autotune: fast, accurate, and automatic tuning parameter selection for Lasso

The paper introduces μs’ autotune, an automatic tuning strategy for the Lasso that optimizes a penalized Gaussian log‑likelihood over regression coefficients and noise standard deviation. Extensive simulations on regression and VAR models show that autotune is faster and yields better generalization and model selection, especially in low signal‑to‑noise regimes. The method also delivers a new noise‑standard‑deviation estimator, a visual diagnostic for sparsity, and is demonstrated on a real‑world financial dataset, with an accompanying R package available on GitHub.

By Tathagata Sadhukhan, Ines Wilms, Stephan Smeekes, Sumanta Basu
arXiv Machine Learning
Oct 12

$L_0$ Feature Selection via Monte Carlo Tree Search in High-Dimensional Financial Regression

The paper introduces a feature selection framework for high‑dimensional financial regression that uses Monte Carlo Tree Search with Generalized Nested Rollout Policy Adaptation. It treats feature selection as a sequential decision process and evaluates candidate subsets by out‑of‑sample validation performance, incorporating subset size and multicollinearity into a lexicographic objective. Applied to a NASDAQ‑100 weekly return regression with 1,072 engineered features, the method outperforms an optimized Lasso baseline, achieving an out‑of‑sample R² of 0.6961 versus 0.6313.

By Cameron Mouangue, Tristan Cazenave
arXiv Statistics ML
Oct 1

Learning-Enabled Estimation: Tight Characterizations under Sample Selection Biases

The paper investigates regression when outcomes are observed only after passing through selection filters that depend on both covariates and outcomes, a common issue in fields such as clinical trials, labor markets, and auctions. It provides a complete characterization of the minimal assumptions on the functional forms of selection processes that allow regression to remain possible, and shows that the regression function can sometimes be identified even when the selection filter itself cannot. Under stronger identification conditions, the authors also deliver finite‑sample estimation guarantees, explicit convergence rates, and oracle‑efficient algorithms, offering the first general‑purpose estimation method for this broad class of selection problems.

By Vikram Kher, Jane H. Lee, Anay Mehrotra, Manolis Zampetakis
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 7

Efficient Cross-Validation for Sparse Linear Regression

arXiv:2306. 14851v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Given a high-dimensional covariate matrix and a response vector, ridge-regularized sparse linear regression selects a subset of features that explains the relationship between covariates and the response in an interpretable manner.

By Ryan Cory-Wright, Andr\'es G\'omez
arXiv Statistics ML
5d ago

Unifying Sparse Estimation of Precision and Covariance Matrices

The paper proposes a unified framework for estimating sparse precision and covariance matrices by reparametrizing the last column of either matrix. This reparametrization reduces the likelihood optimization to a one‑dimensional minimization followed by a penalized multiple regression, applicable to any penalty separable in off‑diagonal entries and linear on the diagonal. When the penalty is the α1 norm, the method simultaneously recovers the graphical Lasso and the covariance graphical Lasso algorithms.

By Aramayis Dallakyan, Mohsen Pourahmadi
arXiv Statistics ML
Oct 9

Handling Covariate Mismatch in Collaborative Linear Prediction

The paper addresses the problem of covariate mismatch in collaborative linear prediction, where different centers collect different sets of features. It proposes estimators that leverage information across centers under center-wise MCAR missingness, including a plug‑in estimator for low dimensions and an impute‑then‑regress strategy with ridge regularization for higher dimensions. All methods comply with federated learning constraints, exchanging only aggregated statistics, and the authors provide theoretical learning rates and numerical validation.

By Alexis Ayme, R\'emi Khellaf
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 19

Feature Priming in Online Linear Regression: Sparse-Regret Lower Bounds and a Tight Univariate Rate

The paper investigates feature priming in high‑dimensional online linear regression, showing that estimating feature weights from past data and refitting a minimum‑norm predictor can lead to regret that scales with sparsity rather than ambient dimension. It provides a negative answer to a COLT 2023 open problem by proving that three natural priming rules incur ≥Ω(min{T,√d}) regret against a zero‑loss one‑sparse comparator, due to cheap nuisance interpolation that underweights truly predictive coordinates. The authors also identify conditions under which regret is governed by data rank and present constructions that achieve tight univariate rates, while noting that the multivariate case remains unresolved.

By Huibo Xu, Shi Fu, Qixin Zhang, Dacheng Tao