arXiv:2607. 16717v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: This paper proposes a causal independence principle for value -- the value Causal Markov Condition (v-CMC) -- and develops the conceptual and mathematical foundations of a "causal value theory" linking causality and utility.
arXiv:2505. 15274v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Probabilities of causation (PoCs) are fundamental quantities for counterfactual analysis and personalized decision making.
arXiv:2607. 26787v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) are widely used as decision-making models, commonly specified over factored state spaces through state variables and their valuations.
arXiv:2603.24333v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Recently, Forr\'e (arXiv:2104.11547, 2021) introduced transitional conditional independence, a notion of conditional independence that provid...
arXiv:2608. 19831v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Causal Bayesian networks (CBNs) and structural causal models (SCMs) are the dominant frameworks for graphical causal reasoning, but they cannot adequately represent all real-world causal systems.
arXiv:2607. 18077v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: What gives the Bellman equation its form?
arXiv:2602. 23545v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: In the real world, planning is often challenged by distribution shifts.
arXiv:2608. 12657v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Probabilities of causation (PoCs) characterize individual causal responses that cannot be directly observed and therefore generally require partial identification.
arXiv:2510. 16703v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The classical notion of causal effect identifiability is defined in terms of treatment and outcome variables.
arXiv:2607. 11816v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Causal discovery algorithms learn a network that describes the causal dependencies among random variables.
This paper addresses Carl Hempel's longstanding problem of statistical ambiguity in inductive-statistical inference, in which contradictory predictions are derived from statistical laws. To avoid such predictions, Carl Hempel proposed the Requirement of Maximal Specificity (RMS) for the statistical laws used in the inference.
The paper discusses the agent-centric general value function (ACGVF) framework, which allows an agent to decide both which goal to pursue and when to consider a goal finished, beyond merely selecting actions. It notes that ACGVF assumes full observability, while a prior approach used an internal belief state but required externally supplied goals. The note proposes to unify and extend these methods using hierarchical hidden Markov models (HHMMs).
arXiv:2608. 07230v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Probabilistic logic programming is a formalism of statistical relational artificial intelligence that supports causal queries, including interventions from outside the system.