The paper introduces a new framework for identifying average dose-response functions in the presence of unmeasured confounding by using instrumental variables. It defines a uniform regular weighting function and partitions the treatment space into open sets where local identification is possible. For estimation, the authors propose an augmented inverse probability weighted score within a debiased machine learning setting, along with practical guidance for constructing weighting functions, falsification tests for the additive IV condition, and asymptotic theory for kernel regression or empirical risk minimization estimators.
By Shuyuan Chen, Peng Zhang, Yifan Cui
arXiv:2609.22383v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Instrumental variable (IV) methods address treatment endogeneity, but with non-compliance and heterogeneous treatment effects a binary instrument gen...
By Zixuan Yao, Guosheng Yin
arXiv:2505. 17961v4 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Causal inference typically assumes centralized access to individual-level data.
By R\'emi Khellaf, Aur\'elien Bellet, Julie Josse
arXiv:2404. 02141v5 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In both observational data and randomized control trials, researchers select statistical models to articulate how the outcome of interest varies with combinations of observable covariates.
By Aparajithan Venkateswaran, Anirudh Sankar, Arun G. Chandrasekhar, Tyler H. McCormick
arXiv:2606. 19643v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Motivated by the privacy, sensitivity and sharing limitations of health data, we present a comprehensive pipeline for inference of Bayesian mixture models within a federated learning setting, i.
By Julie Fendler, Francesca L. Crowe, Tom Marshall, Sylvia Richardson, Paul D. W. Kirk
arXiv:2511. 00217v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: We introduce Gradient Boosted Mixed Models (GBMixed), a framework which extends boosting to clustered data by jointly modeling the mean and variance components in a linear mixed model via likelihood-based gradients.
By Mitchell L. Prevett, Francis K. C. Hui, Zhi Yang Tho, A. H. Welsh, Anton H. Westveld
arXiv:2607. 14940v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study causal inference under outcome interference for sequential, observational settings.
By Phevos Paschalidis, Constantinos Daskalakis, Devavrat Shah
arXiv:2607. 26521v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Conventional subgroup analyses can yield unstable and difficult-to-interpret conclusions, especially in observational biomedical data where each individual is observed under only one exposure state, true individual treatment effects are unavailable, and causal structure is uncertain.
By Vasundhara Acharya, Bulent Yener
arXiv:2609.36046v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: In spatial observational studies, treatment assignment and outcomes often exhibit spatial dependence patterns, and treatment effects may vary across...
By Shuren He, Huiyan Sang, Ligang Lu
The paper introduces new one‑step and targeted minimum loss‑based estimators for the average treatment effect and the average treatment effect on the treated under the front‑door criterion. These estimators use multiple parameterizations of the observed data distribution, can avoid modeling the mediator density, and are compatible with flexible machine‑learning nuisance estimation. The authors derive conditions for root‑n consistency, asymptotic linearity, and develop doubly robust tests for identification assumptions, demonstrating improved efficiency and favorable performance in simulations and real‑world applications in education and emergency medicine.
By Anna Guo, David Benkeser, Razieh Nabi
The paper introduces Bayesian Propensity Score Predictive Inference (PSPI), an interaction‑based outcome modeling framework that uses Bayesian additive regression trees and natural cubic splines of the sampling propensity score to extend randomized trial results to broader target populations. PSPI includes variants that apply splines to the treatment effect component alone or to both prognostic and treatment effect components, enabling separate regularization of selection‑related variation and explicit extrapolation beyond boundary knots. Simulation studies demonstrate that spline‑based PSPI models outperform competing methods, achieving lower root mean squared errors and near‑nominal coverage, especially under substantial covariate shift, and in the CODIACS Vanguard trial application PSPI estimates larger intervention benefits than the unadjusted trial estimate.
By Jungang Zou, Joseph E. Schwartz, Roderick J. A. Little, Nathalie Moise, Qixuan Chen
arXiv:2610.18889v1 Announce Type: cross
Abstract: Estimating (heterogeneous) treatment effects is still challenging when the outcome is semicontinuous (i.e., exhibiting both a discrete point mass at...
By Hugo Gobato Souto, Eric Wang, Igor Shuryak