arXiv:2609.39626v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Ensemble smoothers are the most successful and efficient techniques currently available for history matching. However, because these methods rely on...
The paper presents a continually learning neural‑operator surrogate for the three‑dimensional forward operator used in time‑domain airborne electromagnetic (AEM) Bayesian inversion. By training on successive geological priors and employing an ensemble‑disagreement validity check, the surrogate replaces the expensive forward solver, enabling the Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler to reproduce the full‑solver posterior with credible intervals within 2.6 % of the truth. Applied to the 2013 Capricorn TEMPEST survey, the surrogate inverts over two million soundings in seconds, making uncertainty‑quantified conductivity imaging at survey scale feasible for near real‑time mineral‑systems targeting.
arXiv:2606. 13695v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Mineral prospectivity modelling (MPM) underpins exploration economics, yet most operational pipelines reduce to data-driven classifiers trained on shallow surface proxies.
arXiv:2610.00728v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Weather reanalysis products rely on computationally intensive numerical weather predictions followed by data assimilation that corrects the forecas...
arXiv:2607. 12954v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Engineering use of AI forecasting models requires not only high nominal accuracy but also predictable behavior under uncertain inputs.
Engineering use of AI forecasting models requires not only high nominal accuracy but also predictable behavior under uncertain inputs. In photovoltaic (PV) forecasting, this requirement is especially challenging because numerical weather prediction (NWP) errors are temporally correlated, state dependent, and physically coupled across variables.
arXiv:2610.09770v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Deep learning has made rapid advances in weather forecasting: autoregressive models trained on atmospheric reanalyses now rival dynamical models acro...
arXiv:2606. 26497v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Bayesian filtering of partially and noisily observed dynamical systems seeks to infer the evolving conditional distribution of the state of a dynamical system, given observations, in an online fashion.
The paper compares different Ensemble Kalman methods for calibrating climate model parameters by minimizing the misfit between modeled and observed climate statistics. It conducts systematic numerical experiments on Lorenz-type models, including neural network parameterizations, to evaluate computational efficiency and accuracy of each method. The study examines how prior information and dimensionality affect the cost of these methods.
The paper introduces the Ensemble-conditioned Inverse Problem (EIP), a multivariate statistical framework for inferring an ensemble that follows the pushforward of a prior through a forward process. It applies to fields such as high‑energy physics, full waveform inversion, and inverse imaging, and proposes non‑iterative inference‑time methods using ensemble inverse generative models that avoid explicit forward model use during inference. The authors demonstrate the approach on synthetic and real datasets and provide code for replication.
arXiv:2609.08412v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Machine-learning weather models (MLWMs) now match or outperform operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) at global medium-range forecasting, at f...
arXiv:2607. 23860v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Deep ensembles provide the most reliable uncertainty estimates in deep learning, but their cost grows linearly with the number of members.