A causal multi-modal AI model was developed to predict personalized chemosensitivity in breast cancer patients using routine pathology and clinical data. Trained on 9,141 patients from nine countries and validated on 1,994 patients from three countries, the model produced treatment-specific recurrence probabilities with near-perfect calibration and strong prognostic discrimination over 5- and 10-year horizons. It outperformed existing recurrence-score tests and could reduce chemotherapy prescriptions by 30% while maintaining recurrence-free rates, with predictive performance also transferring to non-breast cancers.
By Dhruva Biswas, Jeroen Berrevoets, Alec McClean, Linus Bao, Jungkyu Park, Ken G. Zeng, Joseph Cappadona, Cerise Tang, Chuwen Liu, Bartosz Machura, Yin Wu, Valerie Speirs, Hatem Soliman, Rohit Bhargava, Sheheryar Kabraji, Thaer Khoury, David Page, Brian Piening, Carlo Bifulco, Claudia Meurs, Pieter Westenend, Sylvie Chabaud, Jerome Lemonnier, Paul H. Cottu, Florence Dalenc, Fabrice Andre, Frederique Madeleine Penault-Llorca, Thomas Bachelot, Frederick Howard, Francisco J. Esteva, Kevin Kalinsky, Lajos Pusztai, Jan Witowski, Krzysztof J. Geras
arXiv:2606. 05797v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Longitudinal treatment decisions require predicting potential outcomes under future treatment sequences in the presence of time-varying confounding, heterogeneous patient dynamics, and limited domain-specific data.
By Amirhossein Zare, Amirhessam Zare, Herlock Rahimi, Reza Salarikia, Mohammad Kashkooli
arXiv:2606. 17405v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Clinical decision support AI systems (CDSASs) must adapt to evolving patient conditions in real-time while adhering to strict safety constraints.
By Xinyu Qin, Anil K. Sood, Ruiheng Yu, Sara Corvigno, Elaine Stur, Lu Wang
The paper proposes a method for estimating treatment effects using AI-generated predictions as surrogates, applied to paired before-and-after measurements for each treated individual. By comparing AI predictions before and after treatment, the approach can identify the average treatment effect on the treated under certain technical assumptions, even when clinical outcomes are never observed for treated subjects. When assumptions are questionable, the authors introduce prediction‑powered inference that corrects bias with a small set of observed outcomes, and validate the method with synthetic and cardio‑oncology data.
By Frances Dean, Anna Neufeld, Joshua Barrios, Geoffrey H Tison, Ahmed Alaa
arXiv:2512. 08029v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Clinical decision-making in oncology requires predicting dynamic disease evolution, a task current static AI predictors cannot perform.
By Tianxingjian Ding, Yuanhao Zou, Chen Chen, Mubarak Shah, Yu Tian
arXiv:2512.08029v4 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: Clinical decision-making in oncology requires forecasting how disease evolves under treatment, yet most AI systems remain static predictors that ca...
By Tianxingjian Ding, Yuanhao Zou, Chen Chen, Mubarak Shah, Yu Tian
arXiv:2608. 14657v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Early identification of lung cancer risk is critical for timely intervention, yet existing prediction models are limited by their reliance on single data modalities and their inability to leverage structured clinical knowledge.
By Chunlei Yang, Shuyan Li, Zhong Cao
arXiv:2606. 09898v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Cancer treatment involves decisions across multiple clinical outcomes, yet pathway-informed deep learning models are typically evaluated in isolation, making their relative benefits unclear.
By Sujoy Banik, Sayantan Chakraborty, Boishakhi Das Toma, Zainab Ghafoor, Ushashi Bhattacharjee, Koushik Howlader, Tirtho Roy
arXiv:2607. 04912v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: In patients with breast cancer, pathological complete response (pCR) has been established as a clinically meaningful surrogate marker for long-term outcomes.
By Johannes Kiechle, Richard Osuala, Daniel M. Lang, Stefan M. Fischer, Ivana Jan\'i\v{c}kov\'a, Karim Lekadir, Julia A. Schnabel, Jan C. Peeken
arXiv:2509. 22352v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Survival analysis is a cornerstone of clinical research by modeling time-to-event outcomes such as metastasis, disease relapse, or patient death.
By Marie Brockschmidt, Maresa Schr\"oder, Stefan Feuerriegel
arXiv:2608.24688v1 Announce Type: new
Abstract: Precision oncology necessitates a longitudinal model of patient state that captures cancer evolution and treatment over time, integrating multimodal ob...
By Eugene Vorontsov, Yi Kan Wang, Alican Bozkurt, Adam Casson, Ludmila Tydlitatova, Michal Zelechowski, Ezra E. W. Cohen, Jyoti D. Patel, Max Banaszak, Caitlin McWilliams, Shane Colley, Kate Sasser, Ryan Fukushima, Eric Lefkofsky, Razik Yousfi, Siqi Liu
arXiv:2608. 12805v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Access to clinical data is essential for developing reliable healthcare machine learning systems, but direct use of electronic health records is constrained by privacy regulation, institutional review, data-use agreements, and the risk of re-identification.
By Akanta Das, Al Amin Farhad, Mrinmoy Sarkar Anto, David Rehkopf, Ayin Vala, Tanmoy Sarkar Pias