arXiv:2603. 25112v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Standard evaluation of LLM confidence relies on calibration metrics (ECE, Brier score) that conflate how much a model knows (Type-1 accuracy) with how well its confidence signal tracks that knowledge (Type-2 metacognitive sensitivity).
By Jon-Paul Cacioli
arXiv:2603. 29693v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: A robust decision-making process must take into account uncertainty, especially when the choice involves inherent risks.
By Richard Servajean, Philippe Servajean
The paper introduces a new method for measuring metacognitive abilities in large language models (LLMs) without relying on self-reports, instead testing how well models can use knowledge of their internal states. Using two experimental paradigms, the authors find that recent frontier LLMs can assess and use their own confidence when answering factual and reasoning questions, and can anticipate and appropriately employ the answers they would give. The study also shows that these abilities are limited in resolution, context-dependent, differ qualitatively from human metacognition, and vary across models with similar capabilities, suggesting post‑training processes influence metacognitive development.
By Christopher Ackerman
arXiv:2606. 32032v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Metacognition is a critical component of intelligence that describes the ability to monitor and regulate one's own cognitive processes.
By Gabrielle Kaili-May Liu, Avi Caciularu, Gal Yona, Idan Szpektor, Arman Cohan
arXiv:2608. 14552v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly evaluated and used in medicine, but clinical usefulness depends on answer accuracy and whether confidence tracks evidence quality and uncertainty.
By Ahmad Nazzal
arXiv:2603. 09309v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Verbalized confidence, in which LLMs report a numerical certainty score, is widely used to estimate uncertainty in black-box settings, yet the confidence scale itself (typically 0--100) is rarely examined.
By Yuyang Dai, Yuxia Wang
arXiv:2608. 15400v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large Language Models (LLMs) are notorious for struggling with assessing their own uncertainty, detecting knowledge conflicts, or recognizing when problems exceed their expertise; such limitations inevitably undermine reliability and trust in LLMs.
By Charles Courchaine, Ricky J. Sethi, Hefei Qiu
arXiv:2606. 28881v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predicting student performance and characterizing metacognitive calibration are essential for personalization in intelligent tutoring systems.
By Gurdeep Singh Virdee
arXiv:2603.22161v3 Announce Type: replace
Abstract: Metacognition -- assessing the quality of one's own cognitive performance -- guides adaptive behavior across species. Substantial research demonstr...
By Dharshan Kumaran, Nathaniel Daw, Simon Osindero, Petar Veli\v{c}kovi\'c, Viorica Patraucean
arXiv:2607. 11881v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Metacognition is a foundational component of intelligence critical to effective learning, problem solving, decision-making, communication, and more.
By Gabrielle Kaili-May Liu, Areeb Gani, Jacqueline Lu, Jordan Thomas, Mark Steyvers, Arman Cohan
arXiv:2607. 22984v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Machine learning models for clinical prediction tasks, such as in-hospital mortality and sepsis onset, routinely achieve high AUROC scores.
By Jie JW Wu, Feiyu E, Bo Chen
arXiv:2603.17839v4 Announce Type: replace-cross
Abstract: Verbal confidence -- prompting LLMs to state their confidence as a number or category -- is widely used to extract uncertainty estimates from...
By Dharshan Kumaran, Arthur Conmy, Federico Barbero, Simon Osindero, Viorica Patraucean, Petar Veli\v{c}kovi\'c