arXiv:2607. 12826v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: This paper addresses Carl Hempel's longstanding problem of statistical ambiguity in inductive-statistical inference, in which contradictory predictions are derived from statistical laws.
This paper addresses Carl Hempel's longstanding problem of statistical ambiguity in inductive-statistical inference, in which contradictory predictions are derived from statistical laws. To avoid such predictions, Carl Hempel proposed the Requirement of Maximal Specificity (RMS) for the statistical laws used in the inference.
arXiv:2501. 05844v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Causal Learning has emerged as a major theme of research in statistics and machine learning in recent years, promising computational techniques to reveal ``true'' causality.
The paper introduces Probabilistic Causal Impact (PCI), a framework that blends actual causality (AC) with Pearl’s probability of necessity and sufficiency to provide tractable, causally grounded explanations. PCI reframes explainability as an estimation problem on a probabilistic causal model, enabling efficient approximation via Monte Carlo sampling. The authors evaluate PCI on synthetic and real-world data, demonstrating consistency with AC, scalability, and applicability to complex continuous systems and large-scale causal machine learning models.
arXiv:2606. 08532v5 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Modern artificial intelligence excels at prediction but cannot explain.
arXiv:2609.26037v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Explanations are central to causal reasoning, and cognitive science has long established that the human drive to explain is itself a mechanism for lear...
arXiv:2608. 03868v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Causal Discovery (CD) from observational data faces two fundamental challenges.
arXiv:2607. 11508v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Causal discovery, the process of recovering underlying causal structures from observational data, is a fundamental pursuit across scientific disciplines.
arXiv:2606. 00278v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: For many real-world systems, causal ground truth is difficult to obtain, making claims about causal effects hard to assess.
CausalProfiler is a synthetic benchmark generator designed to evaluate causal machine learning (Causal ML) methods more rigorously and transparently. It randomly samples causal models, data, queries, and ground truths based on explicit design choices across observation, intervention, and counterfactual reasoning levels, providing coverage guarantees and transparent assumptions. The authors demonstrate its utility by testing several state‑of‑the‑art methods under diverse conditions, both within and outside the identification regime, highlighting the insights CausalProfiler can reveal.
arXiv:2510. 16703v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: The classical notion of causal effect identifiability is defined in terms of treatment and outcome variables.
arXiv:2411.05625v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We propose a new approach to falsify causal discovery algorithms without ground truth, which is based on testing the causal model on a variable pai...
The paper introduces a formal framework that uses symmetries in data to keep causal mechanisms invariant, providing a simple and general mathematical language for causal reasoning. It outlines how to describe models and queries, and presents strategies for rigorously identifying causal effects from data within this framework. The approach reproduces known results for IID data and extends causal analysis to non‑IID settings, complex queries beyond do‑ or soft‑interventions, and incorporates missing data, transfer, and robustness considerations.