arXiv AI By Erik Jahn, Dominik Janzing

Evaluating Bivariate Causal Statements Based on Mutual Compatibility

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arXiv:2606. 00278v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: For many real-world systems, causal ground truth is difficult to obtain, making claims about causal effects hard to assess.

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arXiv AI
Sep 4

A Computationally Feasible Framework for Causal Probabilistic Explanation

The paper introduces Probabilistic Causal Impact (PCI), a framework that blends actual causality (AC) with Pearl’s probability of necessity and sufficiency to provide tractable, causally grounded explanations. PCI reframes explainability as an estimation problem on a probabilistic causal model, enabling efficient approximation via Monte Carlo sampling. The authors evaluate PCI on synthetic and real-world data, demonstrating consistency with AC, scalability, and applicability to complex continuous systems and large-scale causal machine learning models.

By Rafal Urbaniak, Sam Witty, Daniel Waxman, Andy Zane, Poorva Garg, Emily Bunnapradist, Sankaran Vaidyanathan, Jack Feser, Drew Lehe, Eli Bingham