arXiv Machine Learning

Measuring Poverty and Inequality with Reduced Data: A Machine Learning Approach Using Nigerian Household Data

arXiv:2606. 07614v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Reliable measurement of income and consumption is essential for monitoring poverty and inequality in low- and middle-income countries, yet full household surveys are costly and difficult to implement regularly.

arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 11

Crowd-Sourced Geographies of Income: Using Google Maps Points of Interest as High-Frequency Proxies for Sub-Municipal Income Estimation in Sao Paulo, Brazil

arXiv:2608. 07871v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Accurate, up-to-date income data at the sub-municipal scale is essential for social policy in middle-income countries, yet in Brazil it depends on a costly decennial census whose intercensal gap recently exceeded a decade.

By Adrienne C. Kinney, Anya Workman, Ademar Takeo Akabane, Jenna Barac, Paulo Fernando Braga Carvalho, Jeova Farias, Fernando Nascimento, Paulo Ricardo da Silva Oliveira
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 27

Beyond Point Predictions: Uncertainty-Aware Satellite Poverty Mapping for Public Policy

The paper presents an uncertainty‑aware machine‑learning approach for mapping poverty in Africa using satellite imagery. By combining simultaneous quantile regression with a novel conformal prediction technique, the authors generate statistically guaranteed prediction intervals for neighborhood‑level International Wealth Index estimates, achieving high explanatory power (R² = 0.75) while acknowledging broader uncertainty. They also propose a risk‑controlled aid allocation procedure that leverages both survey data and model predictions, showing in simulations that it can deliver more aid per eligible recipient than alternative strategies.

By Markus B. Pettersson, James Bailie, Mohammad Kakooei, Eagon Meng, Adel Daoud
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 11

Full-Feature versus Limited-Input Machine Learning for Residential Energy Estimation: A Comparative Analysis of RECS and ResStock Under Realistic Input Constraints

arXiv:2608. 09255v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Residential energy estimates are often needed before detailed envelope characteristics, equipment efficiencies, infiltration, sensor, or billing data are available.

By Aditya Ramnarayan, Fatih Evren, Patti Gunderson, Samuel Rosenberg
arXiv AI
Sep 15

Transfer Learning for Socioeconomic Estimation in Forced-Displacement Settings

The paper presents a transfer‑learning approach that adapts a multimodal spatiotemporal vision transformer, originally trained on Demographic and Health Survey data, to estimate socioeconomic conditions in forced‑displacement settings. Using satellite‑derived geospatial covariates, the adapted model explains up to 66% of variation in socioeconomic outcomes in camp‑intersecting grids and 41% in non‑camp areas, achieving mean absolute errors of 4.37 and 5.41 index points respectively. This framework supplements periodic household surveys by providing regularly updated, spatially granular socioeconomic estimates that bridge data gaps between survey rounds.

By Steven Ndung'u, Adel Daoud, Ismael Yacoubou Djima, Hai-Anh H. Dang, Patrick Michael Brock