arXiv Machine Learning

Counterfactual Optimal Action Trees (COAT): Interpretable Prescriptive Policies from Observational Data

arXiv:2607. 14318v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We introduce COAT (Counterfactual Optimal Action Tree), a framework for learning interpretable prescriptive policies from observational data.

arXiv Computation and Language
Aug 28

Natural-Language Policies to Executable Decisions: An Interpretable Large Language Model Framework

The paper introduces a production‑grade large language model (LLM) pricing system for the tourism industry that separates structured extraction and policy selection from deterministic numeric pricing. Policies are compiled into interpretable condition trees, allowing new clauses and evolving rules to be added without code changes while maintaining auditability. Deployed across 12 business categories and 1,500 operators, the system handled 3,960 orders in six months, cutting the order‑management team from 15‑20 to 3 and reducing per‑order handling time from 10 minutes to under 2 minutes.

By Ziqiang Zhang, Jing Ma, Zilong Wang, Jiayuan Chen, Yi Qiao, Yu He, Wei Zhang, Dai Cheng, Xiaoyu Shen
Hugging Face Trending Papers
Jul 2

Profit-Based Counterfactual Explanations for Product Improvement: A Case Study of Manga Sales in Japan

Counterfactual explanation (CE) is widely used to enhance the interpretability of machine learning models and support data-driven decision-making based on model predictions. However, existing CE methods typically require two exogenously specified inputs: a desired output value (target) and a distance function that quantifies changes in explanatory variables.

arXiv Machine Learning
5d ago

Counterfactual Online Conformal Prediction Under Adaptive Logging

The paper addresses the failure of online conformal prediction when predictions influence actions that determine which outcomes are used for calibration. It introduces Propensity-Weighted Online Conformal Prediction (PW‑OCP), an inverse‑propensity‑weighted recursion that debiases calibration, and a doubly robust variant (DR‑OCP) that further reduces bias. Experiments on synthetic decision tasks, open bandit data, and financial rebalancing demonstrate that PW‑OCP and DR‑OCP improve counterfactual coverage and downstream regret while preserving prediction‑set sharpness.

By Xinyu Qiao, Yichen Lin, Kaihong Ji, Xue Wang, Tao Yao
arXiv AI
Aug 13

Policy-as-logic for robust reasoning over rules

arXiv:2608. 11905v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In many practical applications of generative AI systems, from tax rules to airline baggage allowance, responses to natural language queries must respect written policies or rules.

By Rahul Nair, Bastian Lipka, Elizabeth Daly
arXiv Machine Learning
Aug 27

CEDAR: Controlled and Event-Driven Demand Forecasting via Residual Decomposition

CEDAR is a two‑stage framework for demand forecasting that incorporates planned actions and external event signals. Stage I uses an Action‑Interleaved Transformer to model controllable state transitions under interventions, while Stage II applies a Residual Correction Module that aligns event descriptions with product context using LLM‑assisted text representations. Experiments on a large Alibaba 1688 dataset show that CEDAR improves simulation accuracy over traditional time‑series forecasting baselines and benefits real‑world budget planning.

By Junjie Meng, Ranxu Zhang, Zi-an Zhang, Shujun Liu, Xiaoning Qi, Xiaozhou Xu, Yanyong Zhang, Hui Xiong, Chao Wang