arXiv:2608. 14014v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Two old market sayings hold that news is already priced in by the time it is published, and that the rumor is bought while the news is sold.
arXiv:2608.12283v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Large language models can extract richer signals from financial news than fixed sentiment lexicons, and recent work has explored feeding such...
The paper introduces NoLBERT, a language model pretrained only on financial news from 1976 to 1995, and adapts it into a sentence encoder via contrastive fine‑tuning. It compares NoLBERT’s topic extraction to LDA, MiniLM, and FinBERT on 1.26 million articles from 2012 to 2024, converting topics into attention shocks and stock exposures to forecast returns of the 1,000 largest US stocks across multiple models and rebalancing frequencies. While NoLBERT produces the most stable topics and performs comparably to LDA, the best‑validated model still loses money, and an equal‑weight blend of all readers yields a monthly net Sharpe ratio of 1.12, significant against zero but not against a price‑only benchmark.
arXiv:2609.38545v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Machine-learning signals built from financial text treat what institutions say, and what the media repeat, as evidence about value. But whoever shape...
The paper audits the impact of temporal leakage on financial-news direction prediction across 49,799 articles and 16 feature-model combinations, including TF‑IDF, MiniLM, FinBERT, and fine‑tuned RoBERTa‑large / DeBERTa‑v3‑large, as well as zero/few‑shot and LoRA probes of Llama‑3 and Qwen2.5. Random train‑test splits inflate MCC scores by 1.1× to 6.5×, with larger models and richer features showing greater gains, while end‑to‑end FinBERT fine‑tuning actually increases the gap. Only the mergers and acquisitions (M&A) category shows a positive locked‑test signal under near‑temporal chronological evaluation, with the signal localized to 2024‑2025 European‑tilted M&A semantics and not transferring to a 2009‑2020 U.S. corpus.
arXiv:2607. 20645v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: We introduce Frontier Financial Judgement, a challenging new benchmark developed in collaboration with professional equity analysts to assess agents' ability to replicate expert human judgements.
The paper demonstrates that large language models (LLMs) used for forecasting real‑world events can be manipulated by simply publishing new articles, even without direct access to the model or its retriever. By injecting a small number of targeted news pieces into a common crawl corpus, an adversary can flip over half of the forecast probabilities and significantly degrade forecast accuracy. The study also shows that common defense strategies can be cheaply bypassed, highlighting the vulnerability of probabilistic LLM judgments to information‑supply‑chain attacks.
arXiv:2609.23703v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Financial language models can transform unstructured firm-specific news into structured decision signals, but financial AI research lacks an integrat...
arXiv:2609.34004v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Equity-relevant news evolves through temporally dependent corporate events, making historical information useful only when event continuity, inform...
arXiv:2607. 12233v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language model (LLM) trading agents show promising performance in equity markets, yet remain narrowly focused on US equities with little evidence from live deployment.
arXiv:2607. 14174v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Financial sentiment extraction has largely relied on news text and supervised extraction against return labels alone, leaving 10-K filings -- and volatility, the target risk disclosure is arguably best suited to informing -- comparatively unexplored.
Large language models (LLMs) can synthesize financial narratives but may express high confidence when evidence is sparse, stale, or contradictory. This failure is especially consequential in forecasting, where filings, news, prices, volume, and technical signals can disagree.
The paper introduces a Causal Market Simulator using a continuous‑time causal prior‑data fitted network (PFN) to estimate market impact, addressing bias from informational flow that traditional models overlook. On a synthetic market prior with adjustable confounding, the PFN matches an unbiased oracle while a naive estimator overestimates by up to 68%. In zero‑shot tests on real limit‑order books and equity data, the model’s intervention responses align with ground‑truth scales and improve correlation with measured impact when a recurrent state‑space variant is used.