arXiv:2606. 11816v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Forecasting real-world events requires language-model agents to reason under uncertainty from incomplete, time-bounded information.
By Yizhou Chi, Eric Chamoun, Zifeng Ding, Andreas Vlachos
The paper demonstrates that large language models (LLMs) used for forecasting real‑world events can be manipulated by simply publishing new articles, even without direct access to the model or its retriever. By injecting a small number of targeted news pieces into a common crawl corpus, an adversary can flip over half of the forecast probabilities and significantly degrade forecast accuracy. The study also shows that common defense strategies can be cheaply bypassed, highlighting the vulnerability of probabilistic LLM judgments to information‑supply‑chain attacks.
By Yuan Lu, Yukuan Zhang
The paper introduces an agentic forecasting environment built on 2,100+ resolved Polymarket questions, where a language model (Qwen3.5-35B-A3B) learns to gather evidence during rollout via web search, page reading, and financial time series, all filtered to avoid post‑cutoff leaks. Training with single‑epoch GRPO and a Brier‑score reward improves calibration by 30‑40% and reduces search attempts, while the trained policy outperforms four frontier models in evidence‑based forecasting, achieving lower soft‑Brier scores at roughly 5% of the inference cost. The authors release the environment, dataset, and per‑rollout records as a reusable harness for temporal forecasting agents.
By Yusuf Afifi, Artur Kiulian, Anton Polishko, Mykola Khandoga, Hamudi Naanaa, Alina Krasnobrizha
arXiv:2606. 18686v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Forecasting benchmarks for general-purpose AI systems usually inherit the constraints of the real world: outcomes resolve slowly, tail events are rare, and counterfactual questions are difficult to score.
By Jaeho Lee, Nick Merrill, Ezra Karger
arXiv:2604. 18576v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We present the Bayesian Linguistic Forecaster (BLF), an agentic system for binary forecasting that achieves state-of-the-art performance on the ForecastBench benchmark.
By Kevin Murphy
arXiv:2607. 24573v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) increasingly support decisions about uncertain future events, yet evaluating their ability to forecast real-world outcomes remains difficult.
By Jonas Schr\"oder, Jonas Schweisthal, Oliver M\"uller, Markus Weinmann, Stefan Feuerriegel