arXiv:2606. 11816v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Forecasting real-world events requires language-model agents to reason under uncertainty from incomplete, time-bounded information.
By Yizhou Chi, Eric Chamoun, Zifeng Ding, Andreas Vlachos
arXiv:2606. 18686v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Forecasting benchmarks for general-purpose AI systems usually inherit the constraints of the real world: outcomes resolve slowly, tail events are rare, and counterfactual questions are difficult to score.
By Jaeho Lee, Nick Merrill, Ezra Karger
arXiv:2604. 18576v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We present the Bayesian Linguistic Forecaster (BLF), an agentic system for binary forecasting that achieves state-of-the-art performance on the ForecastBench benchmark.
By Kevin Murphy
arXiv:2607. 24573v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language models (LLMs) increasingly support decisions about uncertain future events, yet evaluating their ability to forecast real-world outcomes remains difficult.
By Jonas Schr\"oder, Jonas Schweisthal, Oliver M\"uller, Markus Weinmann, Stefan Feuerriegel
arXiv:2608. 08055v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Large language model (LLM) agents that assist users over weeks of conversation must remember what is currently true, not merely what was once said.
By Fengrong Wan, Chengcan Wu, Ningtao Lyu
arXiv:2607. 11889v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Large language models trained on unrestricted internet corpora inevitably embed information from the future, introducing lookahead bias that compromises the validity of backtests and causal inference in finance and the social sciences.
By Bryan Kelly, Semyon Malamud, Johannes Schwab, Teng Andrea Xu