arXiv:2607. 19379v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Prior work has shown that transformers can perform exact Bayesian filtering within a fixed hypothesis class.
arXiv:2509. 11208v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Transformers used for evidence-grounded binary adjudication (e.
arXiv:2607. 18804v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In the \emph{latent posterior model} of transformer behavior, the next-token distribution arises from a posterior over latent predictive models conditioned on the context, mixed to generate continuations.
arXiv:2608. 01575v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Whether large language models perform genuine algorithmic reasoning or mere pattern completion is hard to test, because most benchmarks lack a ground truth for correct inductive inference.
arXiv:2609.24422v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Hierarchical data is ubiquitous in the empirical sciences and is most commonly analyzed with generalized linear mixed-effects models (GLMMs). Bayesian...
Hierarchical data is ubiquitous in the empirical sciences and is most commonly analyzed with generalized linear mixed-effects models (GLMMs). Bayesian inference for GLMMs yields calibrated uncertainty...
arXiv:2507. 11768v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Bayesian accounts of in-context learning face a direct objection: exact posterior predictives for exchangeable data are invariant to task-preserving order, yet transformers change next-token probabilities when the same examples are serialized differently.
arXiv:2607. 17060v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A Bayes-filtered transformer (BFT) is a transformer trained on sequences that are generated in two steps: first a latent task is drawn from a prior, then observations are drawn conditional on that task.
arXiv:2605. 08446v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Bayesian neural networks are typically trained against the evidence lower bound (ELBO), whose Jensen gap closes only when the variational posterior is exact.
Whether large language models perform genuine algorithmic reasoning or mere pattern completion is hard to test, because most benchmarks lack a ground truth for correct inductive inference. We introduce F-ICL, an in-context-learning benchmark that supplies one exactly.
The paper presents a Bayesian framework that unifies several large‑language‑model training and evaluation paradigms—supervised fine‑tuning (SFT), few‑shot in‑context learning (ICL), and KL‑regularized reinforcement learning (RLHF/RLVR). It shows that each method can be viewed as a two‑step process: first constructing a Bayes or Gibbs posterior over outputs or actions using a prior and a utility signal, then approximating this posterior via a forward‑KL projection onto a parametric family. The authors formalize ICL and SFT as amortized weight projections, and demonstrate that reward‑weighted SFT, reward‑weighted ICL, and advantage‑weighted SFT are all special cases of forward‑KL projection onto reward‑induced posteriors, while also outlining where these equivalences hold and where they break down.
arXiv:2608. 09117v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Probabilistic Circuits (PCs) are tractable generative models whose internal nodes encode a hierarchy of probabilistic sum- maries over different variable scopes.
arXiv:2603. 13259v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: When a decoder-only transformer is forced to process matched correct and incorrect single-token continuations of a factual query, the two pathways through hidden-state space diverge in a specific way: displacement vectors from the query-only representation maintain approximately equal magnitude but rotate apart in direction.