arXiv:2607. 19379v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Prior work has shown that transformers can perform exact Bayesian filtering within a fixed hypothesis class.
arXiv:2509. 11208v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Transformers used for evidence-grounded binary adjudication (e.
arXiv:2607. 18804v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: In the \emph{latent posterior model} of transformer behavior, the next-token distribution arises from a posterior over latent predictive models conditioned on the context, mixed to generate continuations.
arXiv:2608. 01575v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Whether large language models perform genuine algorithmic reasoning or mere pattern completion is hard to test, because most benchmarks lack a ground truth for correct inductive inference.
arXiv:2606. 31630v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Language models increasingly write probabilistic programs (in NumPyro, Stan, or Pyro), but a program that compiles, runs, and passes every unit test can still be \emph{statistically} wrong -- a Gaussian likelihood for heavy-tailed data, a Poisson for over-dispersed counts, an invalid prior support, or a pathological parameterization.
arXiv:2507. 11768v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Bayesian accounts of in-context learning face a direct objection: exact posterior predictives for exchangeable data are invariant to task-preserving order, yet transformers change next-token probabilities when the same examples are serialized differently.
arXiv:2607. 17060v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: A Bayes-filtered transformer (BFT) is a transformer trained on sequences that are generated in two steps: first a latent task is drawn from a prior, then observations are drawn conditional on that task.
arXiv:2603. 11799v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Membership inference attacks (MIAs) are becoming standard tools for auditing the privacy of machine learning models.
arXiv:2605. 08446v3 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Bayesian neural networks are typically trained against the evidence lower bound (ELBO), whose Jensen gap closes only when the variational posterior is exact.
Whether large language models perform genuine algorithmic reasoning or mere pattern completion is hard to test, because most benchmarks lack a ground truth for correct inductive inference. We introduce F-ICL, an in-context-learning benchmark that supplies one exactly.
arXiv:2608. 09117v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Probabilistic Circuits (PCs) are tractable generative models whose internal nodes encode a hierarchy of probabilistic sum- maries over different variable scopes.
arXiv:2603. 13259v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: When a decoder-only transformer is forced to process matched correct and incorrect single-token continuations of a factual query, the two pathways through hidden-state space diverge in a specific way: displacement vectors from the query-only representation maintain approximately equal magnitude but rotate apart in direction.
arXiv:2607. 22961v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Verbalized Machine Learning (VML) parameterizes a model as a natural-language prompt that an LLM evaluates as f(x; theta).