The paper addresses the failure of online conformal prediction when predictions influence actions that determine which outcomes are used for calibration. It introduces Propensity-Weighted Online Conformal Prediction (PW‑OCP), an inverse‑propensity‑weighted recursion that debiases calibration, and a doubly robust variant (DR‑OCP) that further reduces bias. Experiments on synthetic decision tasks, open bandit data, and financial rebalancing demonstrate that PW‑OCP and DR‑OCP improve counterfactual coverage and downstream regret while preserving prediction‑set sharpness.
arXiv:2508.10336v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: In a supervised online setting, quantifying uncertainty has been proposed in the seminal work of Gibbs and Cand\`es (2021). For any given poi...
arXiv:2605. 14953v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We address the problem of conformal selection, where an agent must select a minimal subset of options to ensure that at least one ``success'' is identified with a pre-specified target probability $\phi$.
arXiv:2608.07479v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Conformal prediction has been touted as a more formal, rigorous approach to adding uncertainty to a forecast. The sole objective of this note...
arXiv:2607. 02206v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Predictions are increasingly used to guide high-stakes decisions, from treatment selection to policy making.
arXiv:2510. 15824v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: This article considers an online version of conformal inference, called adaptive conformal inference [ACI] and introduced by Gibbs and Cand\`es (2021): prediction sets are issued sequentially, after observing features and before the outcomes are revealed.
arXiv:2608. 07139v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Uncertainty quantification is essential when deploying machine learning models in safety-critical applications.
The paper explores how data from fixed A/B tests can guide the deployment of adaptive experiments using contextual bandits. By combining off‑policy evaluation with a controlled warm‑start simulation, the authors rank pre‑specified adaptive and non‑adaptive policies using doubly robust estimators. Experiments on synthetic trials and real benchmarks show that adaptive, context‑aware policies outperform fixed allocations when heterogeneity exists, but offer little advantage otherwise.
arXiv:2512. 09850v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We introduce Conformal Bandits, a novel framework integrating Conformal Prediction (CP) into bandit problems, a classic paradigm for sequential decision-making under uncertainty.
arXiv:2606. 15217v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Offline model-based optimization (MBO) proposes candidates by optimizing a surrogate trained on a fixed historical dataset.
arXiv:2509. 03456v2 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Off-policy evaluation (OPE) and off-policy learning (OPL) are foundational for decision-making in offline contextual bandits.
arXiv:2602. 09456v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: We propose an algorithmic framework, Offline Estimation to Decisions (OE2D), that efficiently reduces contextual bandit learning with general reward function approximation to offline regression.
arXiv:2606. 05551v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Reliable decision making pipelines powered by machine learning models require uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods that come with explicit safety guarantees.