DualStake introduces a dual-path confidence calibration for deep research agents, adding step confidence elicitation after each retrieval step. The method shows that evidence confidence (E-Conf) after the final retrieval provides a stronger uncertainty signal than answer confidence (A-Conf), and that A-Conf is largely influenced by E-Conf. By applying margin‑clipped, confidence‑dependent stake rewards, DualStake aligns both E-Conf and A-Conf with answer correctness, improving calibration across multiple QA benchmarks without harming accuracy.
Retrieval-augmented generation improves knowledge-intensive question answering, but indiscriminate retrieval can introduce irrelevant evidence and unnecessary computation. We investigate whether verbalized confidence from black-box language models can serve as an actionable signal for retrieval routing.
arXiv:2607. 25600v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Retrieval-augmented generation improves knowledge-intensive question answering, but indiscriminate retrieval can introduce irrelevant evidence and unnecessary computation.
arXiv:2607. 07626v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Reliable confidence estimation is essential for deploying large language models (LLMs) in confidence-aware systems, where downstream decisions such as retrieval, tool use, and adaptive computation depend on accurately estimating answer reliability.
The paper introduces matched trajectory replay, a protocol that fixes answer states, evidence points, budgets, and action costs to evaluate how confidence signals influence agent actions. Using this method, the authors compare raw verbalized confidence with post‑hoc isotonic calibration across six model‑dataset pairs, finding that calibration can significantly improve accuracy of committed answers but may reduce coverage and increase retrieval usage. The study concludes that calibration helps interpret commitment risk but does not predict the benefit of additional retrieval, indicating the need for separate value‑of‑information estimates.
arXiv:2608. 07531v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Search-augmented language agents should retrieve external information only when necessary and ground their answers in retrieved evidence.
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly extended into deep search agents that solve complex questions through multi-step interaction with external search and browsing tools. However, existing agents often incur substantial computational and interaction costs, generating lengthy trajectories that contain redundant queries, inefficient exploration, and irrelevant observations.
arXiv:2602. 01348v3 Announce Type: replace-cross Abstract: Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) can achieve strong answer accuracy on multi-hop questions, but outcome-level rewards often leave reasoning traces weakly grounded and difficult to audit.
MetaRAG introduces a belief-action aligned policy optimization framework for agentic retrieval-augmented generation (RAG). It incorporates Verify-first Action Generation and Internal Belief Probing to assess whether the current evidence is sufficient before taking an action, and uses a consistency reward gated by answer correctness to guide training. Experiments on seven public QA benchmarks demonstrate that MetaRAG improves the accuracy-efficiency trade-off over existing RL-based agentic RAG baselines, with benefits that transfer across research settings, optimizers, and model backbones.
The paper introduces Conformalized Agentic Search (CAS), a framework that applies Conformal Prediction to improve the reliability of search agents during reinforcement learning fine-tuning. CAS uses an Adaptive Prediction Set (APS) to dynamically truncate retrieved documents based on statistical coverage, and Adaptive Conformal Inference (ACI) to construct confidence-aware prediction sets that penalize low‑confidence trajectories in the Group Relative Policy Optimization objective. Experiments on single‑hop and multi‑hop QA datasets show that CAS enhances reasoning accuracy and reduces redundant tool invocations, offering a more reliable and efficient agent paradigm.
arXiv:2608. 10964v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Reinforcement Fine-Tuning (RFT) has enabled medical Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) to produce Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning for visual question answering, yet these models suffer from $\textit{confidence miscalibration}$---a systematic gap between expressed certainty and actual diagnostic accuracy that undermines clinical trust.
DirEAG introduces a Dirichlet Evidence Aggregation technique to calibrate verbalized confidence in large language models performing mathematical reasoning. By converting each elicited answer-confidence pair into calibrated soft evidence over candidate answers and a null state, it addresses prompt- and task-dependent bias that simple averaging or heuristic aggregation cannot handle. Experiments on GSM8K, SVAMP, and GSM-Hard with Qwen, Mistral, and Gemma models demonstrate that DirEAG achieves better calibration while maintaining competitive answer selection compared to existing methods.
DynaKRAG is a unified framework that learns a state‑conditioned policy to control evidence acquisition in multi‑hop retrieval‑augmented generation. It uses a deterministic validity layer to build an action set, a learned continuation gate to decide between generating an answer or gathering more evidence, and an advantage scorer to rank evidence operations by predicted gain. Across HotpotQA, 2Wiki, and MuSiQue with various backbone models, DynaKRAG achieves top EM and F1 scores, improves token and retrieval efficiency, and enables terminal evidence compression that reduces context size while boosting answer quality.