arXiv:2608. 06765v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Continuous-time dynamic graph models predict future links by compressing past interactions into neural states.
arXiv:2608. 10433v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Temporal reports are increasingly emitted alongside numerical forecasts and are often interpreted as statements about the computation producing those forecasts.
The paper introduces Specified-Foil Counterfactuals for temporal graphs, a method that seeks low‑cost past‑event interventions to make a user‑specified alternative outcome the top prediction. It uses trace‑guided search to compare completed executions of the original prediction with reconstructed incomplete executions of the foil, mapping differences to operations such as DELETE, INSERT, REWIRE, RELABEL, and SHIFT, and then verifies the foil through exact replay. Experiments on continuous‑time dynamic graphs and temporal knowledge graphs show that the approach retains most greedy successes while dramatically reducing predictor evaluations and achieving the specified foil in a majority of cases.
BridgeMem is a new method for temporal knowledge graph forecasting that focuses on pair‑specific transition evidence, adding a residual correction to the log scores of a frozen full‑vocabulary forecaster. It retrieves and encodes prior events between a query actor and candidate, converting them into a likelihood‑ratio correction via a support‑adaptive empirical‑Bayes reader. Across five benchmarks, BridgeMem outperforms nine baselines from 2021–2026, improving filtered MRR and Hits@{1,3,10} metrics by up to 0.0216.
arXiv:2609.36559v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Extrapolative temporal knowledge graph reasoning (TKGR) predicts future facts from historical snapshots. Most existing methods train once on an early...
arXiv:2608. 10433v4 Announce Type: replace Abstract: Time-series forecasters increasingly accompany numerical predictions with explicit temporal reports, such as delays or selected history, but a correct report need not describe the information actually used by the forecast.
arXiv:2607.22365v2 Announce Type: replace Abstract: High-complexity operational environments require methods that characterize temporally distributed patterns rather than classify isolated events. Th...
arXiv:2607. 25554v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Future event prediction carries broad social impact yet remains challenging.
arXiv:2607. 14733v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Temporal Knowledge Graphs (TKGs) record how facts evolve over time, but forecasting future events on a TKG remains difficult for three reasons: (i) long-range temporal dependencies are hard to encode; (ii) events on different chains mutually excite or inhibit one another in ways that snapshot-level models cannot express; and (iii) inter-arrival times are heavy-tailed and statistically sparse, so deterministic time predictors are unreliable.
arXiv:2607. 09232v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Temporal knowledge graphs (TKGs) represent evolving relational systems, whose underlying data-generating processes often change over time.
The paper introduces a formal framework and benchmark for time‑series world models (TSWMs) that separates state, actions, and exogenous inputs, and defines a new metric called mechanism consistency to evaluate whether model predictions move in the expected direction when actions change. Experiments on eight public datasets show that using a frozen latent prediction space and gated output fusion improves prediction accuracy, while prediction error and mechanism consistency often diverge, with the best‑performing models sometimes failing to exhibit consistent directional responses. Adding a directional supervision loss significantly boosts mechanism consistency without affecting mean‑absolute error, providing a practical recipe for building more reliable TSWMs.
arXiv:2606. 27199v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Successful forecasting involves identifying patterns between historical and future states of the world which generalize to future observations.
The paper introduces RoMem, a temporal knowledge graph module that treats time as continuous phase rotation rather than discrete labels. RoMem uses a Semantic Speed Gate to assign volatility scores to relations, allowing evolving facts to rotate quickly while persistent facts remain stable, thereby preventing the need for deletion or costly LLM calls. The method achieves state‑of‑the‑art performance on ICEWS05‑15 and improves temporal reasoning in agentic memory benchmarks such as MultiTQ, LoCoMo, and FinTMMBench.