arXiv Machine Learning

CADENCE: A Confidence-Adaptive Dual-Expert Network for Fast and Accurate Time Series Classification

arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 2

LeNEPA: No-Augmentation Next-Latent Prediction for Time-Series Representation Learning

arXiv:2607. 00958v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Time series are central to modern data mining applications, from industrial telemetry and server metrics to finance and physiology, yet time-series self-supervised learning often depends on view and augmentation choices that encode domain-specific invariances.

By Alexander Chemeris, Ming Jin, Randall Balestriero
arXiv Machine Learning
4d ago

Scaling Zero-Order Pretraining through Model Sharding

arXiv:2609.37899v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Zero-order optimization (ZO) trains without backpropagation, making it relevant to forward-only hardware and non-differentiable loss, but its gradient...

By Francois Chaubard, Mykel J. Kochenderfer, Chris R\'e
arXiv Machine Learning
Sep 22

Neural Spectral Capacity: Measuring and Designing Architectures from Network Specification Alone

The paper introduces Neural Spectral Capacity (NSC), a closed‑form metric derived from the singular‑value spectrum of weight matrices that can be computed solely from a network’s architectural specification. Unlike traditional measures such as #Params and #FLOPs, NSC captures architectural structure (depth, width, head, FFN allocations) and can be evaluated without instantiating the model, data, or gradients. Using a dynamic‑programming solver (NSC‑DP), the authors demonstrate that NSC can efficiently identify architectures that outperform existing training‑free proxies across Transformer and CNN families, and achieve state‑of‑the‑art results in tasks such as WikiText‑103 and commonsense reasoning with LLaMA‑7B. whyItMatters":"NSC provides a fast, architecture‑only proxy that outperforms conventional metrics and training‑free proxies, enabling more effective design and pruning of large models without costly training or data."

By Chenyu Zhu, Ruoyu Zhao, Zhichao Lu
arXiv Machine Learning
Jul 13

Forking-Sequences: Statistically and Computationally Efficient Multi-Horizon Forecasting with Reduced Volatility

arXiv:2510. 04487v5 Announce Type: replace Abstract: While accuracy is a critical requirement for time series forecasting, an equally important desideratum is reasonable forecast volatility across forecast creation dates (FCDs).

By Willa Potosnak, Malcolm Wolff, Mengfei Cao, Ruijun Ma, Tatiana Konstantinova, Dmitry Efimov, Michael W. Mahoney, Boris Oreshkin, Kin G. Olivares
arXiv AI
Sep 7

When Load-Balancing Goes Too Far: Expert Pruning in Over-Dispersed Mixture-of-Experts Models

The paper examines how expert pruning—removing low‑importance experts in Mixture‑of‑Experts models—fails when the router is over‑dispersed, a condition caused by aggressive load‑balancing that spreads tokens nearly uniformly across experts. In this regime, traditional importance signals from router probabilities collapse, making perplexity an unreliable predictor of downstream accuracy; for example, the lowest‑perplexity pruning on gpt‑oss‑20B harms mathematical reasoning while the highest‑perplexity pruning preserves it. To address this, the authors introduce Minimax Expert Score Allocation (MESA), a domain‑aware method that iteratively boosts scores for the most affected domain, achieving minimal worst‑case degradation across domains and outperforming baseline pruning strategies on multiple benchmarks while reducing memory usage.

By Berkcan Kapusuzoglu, Connor Pryor, Sangwoo Cho, Supriyo Chakraborty, Shi-Xiong Zhang, Sambit Sahu, Milind Naphade